I have witnessed many historical moments in the crypto space, but my past understanding was limited, I couldn't comprehend or seize them. However, this time my judgment feels more accurate compared to before, I will share it and leave it for future validation.
First, the ETF approval means that Bitcoin is no longer just Bitcoin.
In today's world, the economy, finance, and the dollar, the United States still holds absolute dominance.
In the past, Wall Street played high and mighty, while the crypto space played low to the extreme. Now, with BTC gaining mainstream acceptance, people's judgment of it will be completely different.
ORDI listing on Binance is the cryptocurrency community's recognition of ORDI, allowing it to rise from 3 to 90.
BTC's approval of the ETF is the recognition of BTC by traditional finance, will BTC rise from 40,000 to how much?
1. The approval of the ETF means that BTC is a legitimate investment.
There is no essential difference from investing in Apple stock, but the biggest difference is that its price increase will outpace the vast majority of stocks.
Especially since you can't evaluate this thing using a traditional financial system. Finding an old crypto trader is better at valuing coins than an analyst on Wall Street, which opens up greater imaginative possibilities.
2. The approval of the ETF means that countless funds will start to flow in.
The scale of traditional finance is terrifying. In the past, they couldn't buy BTC, but now they can...
The most important logic is: narrative value will continue to play the biggest role in both the short and long term. In other words, whether certain institutions buy or don't buy is not important; whether certain institutions like or dislike is not important. There will always be people who like and buy.
Bitcoin's historical status has reached a position comparable to gold, but with more potential.
So, gold is worth 16 trillion, Bitcoin less than 1 trillion, but I believe Bitcoin will 100% surpass gold. If BTC starts to rise 16 times again, how much is BTC? You can calculate it yourself.
But does the ETF approval mean constant increases? Will BTC reach 1 million tomorrow? Of course not.
The ETF approval is a long-term, huge, unprecedented good thing, but it doesn't mean there won't be volatility, let's talk about this next.
Second, how will the bull market unfold? How long will it last?
I think the ETF matter, combined with Bitcoin halving and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, will be a process lasting over a year. During this period, Bitcoin will continue to rise steadily, thus, it will be a slow bull, a big bull.
Moreover, I believe this four-year cycle will be completely broken. Although it won't be an eternal bull market, BTC should still see declines of over 50% in the future. However, overall, it will become stronger because the people trading and holding coins are no longer the same.
Young man, cherish it.
Isn't making money in this world all about information gaps and cognitive gaps? Huge consensus attracts a substantial influx of new people and new capital. In the beginning, this is great, but later on, we 'natives' will have to face the muskets and tanks of traditional finance. If we can't learn and build our Iron Man armor, good days won't last long.
As for how short-term volatility will behave? Have you noticed that I emphasized a long time ago that this is a bull market? Give up all short-term swings. Acting on short-term predictions is like jumping on and off a high-speed train; eventually, one will fall and get hurt.
In a word: big bull, slow bull, lasting for a very long time.
The market needs time to digest, and there's no need to FOMO too much. In the very short term, theoretically, emotions are still driving things. Emotions come quickly and go quickly, there should always be a calm opportunity to get on board—have you ever seen a big opportunity that requires you to rush for a few hours?
