In the immediate term, the focus is undeniably on the U.S. election, but in the bigger picture, the bullish trend for Bitcoin remains firmly intact. Right now, speculating on how a Trump or Harris administration might impact the market feels trivial, as the market sentiment in crypto is remarkably clear: Harris equals bearish pressure; Trump equals bullish support. That’s how it is for the near term. But in the long term? The answer seems obvious—Bitcoin’s path has historically been upward, election or no election. The established trend for Bitcoin has always been clear—long-term bullish, while the short-term remains highly reactive.
At present, there’s an important short-term factor—the U.S. election. In this election cycle, Harris is perceived as the "bearish candidate," while Trump is regarded as the "bullish figure." The market swings sharply each day based on the latest election updates, creating a tense and sometimes puzzling atmosphere. Many are left wondering whether these moves reflect Bitcoin’s genuine direction or if market players are merely exploiting the election hype to drive volatility.
Recently, I expressed a concern: with the ongoing election cycle favoring bearish developments for Harris, Bitcoin’s price has been slipping. Just yesterday, it dipped below 66,000, hinting at a possible downturn. Yet, behind the scenes, institutional investors and large players appear to be quietly capitalizing on this dip. This week alone, the net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs hit $2.1 billion, with whales positioning for a potential bottom. What does this reveal? Could it all be part of a broader maneuver?
Based on Farside Investors data, the weekly net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs indeed reached $2.1 billion, including inflows of $2.02 billion into BlackRock’s IBIT and $83.6 million into Fidelity’s FBTC. As this information circulated, it seems the broader market started recognizing these signs. Market sentiment has stabilized, and we witnessed no further sell-off but instead a robust rebound, with Bitcoin reclaiming close to the 69,000 range. This suggests that many believe Harris’s advantage isn’t enough of a reason to short, suspecting that market forces might be using election-related news to provoke hasty selling among retail investors.
When we pause and reflect on this rationally, the situation appears less intimidating. Over the long term, regardless of who secures the presidency, the potential for Bitcoin to continue appreciating remains strong. With a finite supply and deflationary nature, compounded by losses and inaccessible wallets, Bitcoin’s scarcity is likely to drive value higher. This is a long-term trajectory that’s difficult to disrupt.
If we think of the long term as strategy and the short term as tactics, then strategically, there’s little need to worry about a single election’s effect on Bitcoin’s broader trend. For those holding spot positions, the best approach may be to remain steady, minimize unnecessary moves, observe the market, and let time work in your favor as the dust settles, allowing Bitcoin to resume its historical trajectory.
However, even with this long-term confidence, it’s essential not to overlook short-term tactics. The election’s immediate impact on Bitcoin’s short-term price action is clear. Within crypto circles, Harris is seen as the “bearish candidate,” and as her odds fluctuate, Bitcoin’s price follows suit. If she wins, we could see a strong reaction, perhaps even a panic sell-off leading to a notable market downturn. On the other hand, a Trump win might put bearish traders in a challenging position.
From a tactical standpoint, this is especially relevant for those trading on margin. In this uncertain climate, a cautious approach is best—trade less, avoid heavy positions, and ensure sufficient margin. In volatile times like these, cash remains a powerful tool, offering flexibility and safety. How do you all see it?
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