Next week, there are two major events worth paying attention to:
The fantasies of retail investors are:
- Harris elected, Bitcoin plummets 📉 40%
- Trump elected, Bitcoin skyrockets 📈 100k+
1. The results of the election on November 5th may be revealed that evening. Remember the last time Trump was elected, the market was highly volatile, and many suffered significant losses.
2. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting from November 6th to 7th. If there is a rate cut, it could lead to a market rise; if there is no cut, the market may continue its current trend. Based on non-farm payroll data, a 25 basis point cut is expected this time. However, combining the election with the interest rate meeting complicates the situation, and significant fluctuations may occur.
For Bitcoin, regardless of who is elected, it will not affect its market. The market makers focus on market trends and their own interests, not on Trump or Harris.
Once the election results are out, market fluctuations may be smaller than expected. This has happened several times, such as on the night of a rate cut, or when Trump attended a Bitcoin conference, etc.
The most likely scenario is that after the election results are released, the market will experience slight fluctuations and then continue on its original trend. Bitcoin's market has formed through long-term adjustments and will not change due to a single event.
For market makers, the U.S. election can increase market volatility and divergences, providing more storytelling material. The election is the tool that market makers like to use for storytelling the most after ETFs.
