summary:
The global economy is facing multiple pressures of high inflation, high interest rates, economic slowdown and geopolitical conflicts, while the United States is increasingly turbulent due to social divisions and political polarization. The 2024 US election has once again become the focus of global attention - the competition between Harris and Trump has entered a white-hot stage. This article deeply analyzes the current election situation, candidate propositions, the influence of key swing states, and the potential constraints of congressional re-election on policies, and explores the possible impact of the election of the two candidates. For China, no matter what the outcome of the election is, the situation of confrontation between China and the United States is unlikely to ease. This article believes that China needs to maintain economic stability and deepen reform and opening up in order to remain invincible in the global changes.

1. The US election in the context of anti-globalization: a turbulent election situation

The global economy is shrouded in gloom. High inflation, rising interest rates, slowing economic growth, and endless geopolitical conflicts and trade barriers are challenging the development foundations of all countries. The United States is also in turmoil due to political polarization and social division. The presidential campaign between Trump and Harris has become the focus of attention in the United States and the world. The campaign of the two candidates has experienced ups and downs, even including shootings and sudden candidate replacements. Harris succeeded Biden as the current vice president, while Trump's performance on issues such as economy and immigration also affected the election trend.

The latest poll data as of November 2 showed that Trump was leading Harris by a narrow margin of 0.3 percentage points. Nevertheless, poll errors may have a certain impact on the final result. For example, in the 2016 election, polls showed that Hillary was ahead, but Trump ultimately won by relying on a narrow margin of victory in flipped states. This also makes the election more complicated.

2. Swing states are key: Gains and losses determine the success or failure of the election

The US presidential election is not a direct election with one person, one vote, but an indirect election of the president through the "Electoral College" system. Therefore, winning the key "swing states" means holding the key to victory. The support base of the two parties is relatively solid. The eastern and western coastal areas are mostly "blue states" supporting the Democratic Party, while the southern and central regions are "red states" supported by the Republican Party. However, "rust belt" states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as "sun belt" swing states such as North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, will become the focus of candidates.

Polls in these states fluctuate frequently, showing the swing nature of this election. Trump once led in some swing states, but a variety of factors may change the results. For example, the Democratic Party's slow response to hurricane relief and the situation in the Middle East caused dissatisfaction among voters.

3. Congressional re-election: checks and balances on presidential policies

The election for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives will also be held on the day of the election. The results of the congressional election will directly affect the implementation of the president's future policies. At present, the Republicans are more likely to control the Senate while maintaining a slight advantage in the House of Representatives. If the Republicans fully control Congress, Trump will be able to promote policies more smoothly if elected; conversely, if the Democrats win more seats, Harris' policies may gain greater support. The U.S. system of separation of powers ensures checks and balances between different parties in the government, making the president's policies subject to the distribution of party lines in Congress.

4. Comparison of the two candidates’ policy proposals: the far-reaching impact of different political platforms

Harris and Trump's policy proposals reflect the fundamental differences between the two parties in areas such as economy, trade and diplomacy.

  • Harris: He advocates the continuation of Biden's "Bidennomics", focusing on medical reform, easing of immigration policies, tax reform, etc., with particular emphasis on social welfare. Regarding China, Harris tends to unite allies to put pressure on China to restrict its technological development.

  • Trump: Continue the "America First" policy, advocate the return of manufacturing, cut domestic taxes, and support the development of traditional energy. He takes tough measures on trade with China, and even advocates a substantial increase in tariffs and restrictions on Chinese investment in the United States.

Once these two candidates take office, they may have a significant impact on the U.S. economy, domestic employment, and even Sino-U.S. relations.

5. China’s response: Focus on its own economy and deepen reform and opening up

Regardless of the outcome of the US election, the tension in Sino-US relations is likely to continue. Faced with a complex international situation, China needs to maintain economic and employment stability, take reform and opening up as a starting point, and attract global capital inflows. By strengthening domestic demand, increasing national income, and boosting the job market, China is expected to move forward steadily amid global turmoil. The long-term nature of the competition between China and the United States has become a consensus among all sectors, and the best strategy to deal with external pressure is to "do a good job" and win global trust with a sound economic policy.


In this US election that has attracted worldwide attention, Trump and Harris represent different visions of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party for the future, which will also have a profound impact on the global economy and Sino-US relations. No matter which of the two candidates is elected, it may bring about fluctuations in policies and markets. For China, the focus is on laying the foundation for future sustainable development by deepening reforms and stabilizing domestic demand.

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