Can the US election really affect the subsequent trend of Bitcoin? Taking advantage of the weekend, let me briefly share whether it is a bull market or a bear market?

Many people may think that if Trump wins, it will be a bull market, and if Harris wins, it will be a bear market. I think this is unlikely.

Personally, I think the election results will not have much impact. Trump supports encryption mainly to canvass votes. As a risky asset, it is impossible for him to use the whole country's strength to promote encryption as soon as he takes office. Harris is just a puppet, and the Bitcoin ETF was passed during the Democratic Party's rule behind him, so it will not be a direct "bear market".

What can affect the news is "expectation", that is, when the news is "freshly released". The landing of the result means that the expectation has been consumed, and the impact will not be too great.

As for whether the market will be "bull" or "bear" in the future, I think the final result is "bull", but it will take some time to wash out.

After all, the current Bitcoin liquidation chart shows that a 10% increase will liquidate 1.6 billion shorts, and a 10% decrease will liquidate 3.4 billion longs. This long-short ratio is unlikely to directly start a bull market.

However, according to the process of the last bull market, combined with factors such as Bitcoin's market share and the interest rate cut cycle, the outcome is likely to be "bull", so I won't go into details due to space limitations.

I have also analyzed the monthly chart of Bitcoin (you can refer to my article on October 19th), and it is currently a very standard wash-out stage. Recently, CZ, the former CEO of Binance, also said that according to the cycle, Bitcoin will reach a new high in 25 years.