As we all know, the magical law of "any gap must be filled" has been circulated in the market. The so-called gap is actually the gap left after the price of Bitcoin futures on CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) jumps short or high between the closing price and the opening price. Although there is no actual basis for the statement that "every gap must be filled", looking at the historical trajectory of Bitcoin on CME, it can be found that more than 95% of the gaps can be filled in the end. It has to be said that this is indeed the case. A kind of "metaphysics".

It needs to be emphasized again that there is no actual theoretical basis behind the "filling the gap" theory. It is just a pure summary of market experience. Therefore, it is not suitable to be used as a reference for short-term speculation, especially not as a basis for opening orders on contracts. The market fluctuations and time-consuming that a gap will experience from the time it appears to when it is filled are completely unpredictable. If you go long or short based on the gap, the final result is likely to be your position before the gap is filled. It just exploded. However, from a spot perspective, it is indeed beneficial to use some long-lasting gaps as a reference to buy the bottom/escape from the top.

The most recent gap to be filled was the 35180-34455 left by Bitcoin on May 6, 2022. After a year and a half of history, it was finally filled last Tuesday (10.24). At this point, the price of Bitcoin on CME no longer has an upward gap. At the beginning of the year, I believed that Bitcoin’s rebound could reach as low as 35,000. It was based on this conclusion based on the law of “filling the gap”.

At present, the remaining gaps in Bitcoin are all below the current price. Based on the price of the gaps, we will take a look at the gaps from high to low.

Notch 1: 34160-34750

This is the gap closest to the current price. If Bitcoin continues to consolidate, there is a high probability that this gap will be filled this week.

Notch 2: 29745-29840

This is the gap left by Bitcoin last week. I originally thought that Bitcoin would pull back to fill the gap before rising last week. Unexpectedly, it finally broke through 30,000 US dollars and never returned. The position of this gap is rather awkward, just inside the previous market shock range (24800-31800). If the Bitcoin price corrects in the short term to fill this gap, then this rise will become a false breakthrough again, so even in the short term We hope that Bitcoin will pull back to pick us up, but we definitely don’t want to see the price pull back to the gap.

Notch 3: 26290-26400

This is the gap left by Bitcoin on September 28. This gap has been more than a month now. In the short term, the probability of this gap being filled is not very high, or in other words, if Bitcoin once again Returning to the gap price, it should also mean that the rising market has ended and the market has once again entered a downward trend.

Notch 4: 20330-21100

This is the gap left by Bitcoin after the bank thunder crisis in March, when the price of Bitcoin exploded due to capital hedging. The price of this gap is also an excellent point for us to refer to when building a spot position in the future. First of all, this price is very close to the bottom range of this bear market; secondly, this is almost the shutdown price of most mining machines on the market. If you still have a position that has not been bought, then when the price returns here again, there is almost no need to hesitate to buy the bottom.

Notch 5::9665-9925

If Bitcoin reaches this price gap again, then the market has basically lost confidence, and it will not be surprising if it falls further or even returns to zero. Therefore, in my opinion, this gap is almost impossible to fill, which is less than 1% exception to the "filling the gap" law.