It may be difficult for Trump to win this election! The high probability of losing the election will cause substantial turmoil in the virtual currency market
1. Election data reveals the difficulty of Trump’s victory. According to data from multiple polling agencies and forecasting websites, Trump’s probability of winning is gradually declining. For example, data from the Polymarket prediction website shows that Trump’s probability of winning has declined from the high point some time ago, while the probability of his competitors’ election has increased accordingly. In addition, the latest results from polling organizations such as RCP also show that Trump’s support rate in key swing states has not gained a significant advantage. More importantly, Trump’s support among some key voter groups is not ideal. For example, Trump is falling further behind among college graduates, female voters, and moderate Republican voters. The choices of these groups of voters often have a decisive impact on the election results, so Trump's poor performance among these groups undoubtedly makes it more difficult for him to win.
2. The impact of Trump’s policies on the virtual currency market. If Trump fails to win the election, the failure of his policy propositions will have a significant impact on the virtual currency market. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly expressed his support for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and proposed plans to promote related policies.
Therefore, if Trump is not elected, the market may believe that the cryptocurrency industry will lose an important supporter, leading to a decrease in investor confidence. Specifically, the failure of Trump’s policies may lead to changes in the following aspects: Increased uncertainty in regulatory policies: If Trump fails to be elected, the new government may adopt regulatory policies that are different from Trump’s. Declining investor confidence: Trump’s supporters include many investors interested in cryptocurrencies.
If Trump fails to win, these investors may become disappointed and frustrated and choose to reduce or divest from cryptocurrencies. This will further increase market volatility and uncertainty. Changes in market capital flows: The failure of Trump’s policies may cause some funds to flow from the cryptocurrency market to other more certain investment areas. This will further compress the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market and exacerbate market volatility and downward trends.