Currently, the US stock market and other markets are under continuous downward pressure, and it is difficult to achieve a sustained and substantial rise by relying solely on ETF expectations. Macroeconomic analysis has been conducted many times, and in general, market sentiment will remain relatively optimistic from now until the beginning of next year.
Let’s get back to the cryptocurrency market:
Bitcoin ($BTC)'s daily moving average (MA5) has begun to turn upward, around $33,800, which has caused the current price decline to become relatively sluggish. Although the recent rise has been rapid, as time goes by, if the rise cannot continue, internal holders will sooner or later start to take profits. There are already many long upper shadows on the daily line, which is a signal that needs attention.
At this stage, we need to be patient. Either wait for the price to break through the trend line of $35,000 and then choose the time to add positions; or wait for the price to retreat to the support level of $32,000 and then consider opening a long position.
Ethereum ($ETH) does not have much of an internal narrative right now, as the Cancun upgrade is almost certain not to be implemented before the end of the year. Yesterday, ETH price saw short-term strength, but has weakened again and is currently trading at support between $1740 and $1650.
The ETH/BTC cross rate has reached support and may move in tandem with Bitcoin in the future. There may be a slight catch-up rally, but overall, I don’t think it’s time for Ethereum to perform well. If you are waiting for a pullback, consider adding to your Bitcoin position first.
Regarding altcoins, overall, there are strong and weak performances. Strong coins are usually driven by large funds or market makers. There is no obvious sector rotation phenomenon yet. At this stage, we need to pay close attention to which altcoins are relatively resilient. Usually, after the first market adjustment, these coins will at least show strong performance again.
If the currency you hold has a small increase, it is best to wait patiently for sector rotation and do not change investment targets intermittently.
Finally, I would like to emphasize again that the current market’s main focus is on Bitcoin ETFs. We should grasp the main market rhythm and give priority to increasing Bitcoin longs.
For the copycat side, we still focus on the star currencies OP and ARB:
There seems to be no event associated with them during this rally, and holders may have concluded that the two projects are not attractive, causing a sharp drop in confidence.
OP: OP has been struggling to break through the $1.45 price since September. When bearish sentiment increased in October, the price fell further, even falling to $1.15 on October 20. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin unexpectedly rose and recovered most of its recent losses. Although OP has begun to slowly rebound under the trend of Bitcoin, it has not yet broken through the $1.45 resistance.
ARB: ARB's trend is similar to OP, with this round of gains exceeding that of the 20th, with an increase of about 20%. We need to review and analyze the reasons. First of all, we need to understand what can drive the rise of these two currencies. Without a doubt, it is the Cancun upgrade. The most important thing for Ethereum in the remaining 2023 is the EIP-4844 Cancun hard fork and decentralized verification node technology. This upgrade will most likely bring good benefits to OP and ARB. Please note that the current market value is around US$1 billion, and the Cancun upgrade has not yet arrived, so market sentiment has driven them to rise sharply. In summary, these two projects are not waste, but they may lack sufficient market sentiment at present. Please be patient and don't give up before dawn! !
