10.29: Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - Offensive and Defensive Strategies
1. Current Market Situation and Bull Market Wave Perspective
The recent rise of Bitcoin has sparked various discussions about the bull market's main wave.
However, we need to remain calm and view this rationally.
In reality, BTC has not yet broken through its consolidation range, and ETH hasn't even reached its resistance level. In this situation, it's too early to discuss the main wave of a bull market.
My viewpoint remains unchanged; I do not anticipate the so-called main wave to occur at this moment.
Moreover, I expect that the exchange rate of ETH and altcoins relative to BTC will continue to decline, a situation that could persist until the end of the year.
2. Conditions for Changing a Bearish Perspective
There is only one scenario that could make me change my current bearish stance: if ETH can effectively stabilize above 2820. I have emphasized this point multiple times.
If the market truly experiences a main wave, then considering going long after ETH stabilizes at that price level will still be timely.
Acting blindly before that point would mean that the current so-called "rises" are merely fleeting small fluctuations in a prolonged adjustment process, much like a small ripple in the ocean, easily submerged by the market's larger tide. We must not let such small fluctuations deceive our eyes.
