Whether Bitcoin can reach $70,000 depends on lower interest rates, the outcome of the US election, growth in BTC miner profits, and strong spot ETF demand.
Bitcoin rose 3.8% between October 23 and October 25, but resistance is at $68,700, but is the bullish momentum enough to push prices above the $70,000 range? While the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts have increased investor risk appetite, pushing Bitcoin above the $70,000 mark could depend on four main drivers.
Limiting factors include global economic uncertainty, concerns about high mining selling pressure and low hash rate profitability, the potential impact of the U.S. election results on regulation, and large Bitcoin reserves on exchanges.
Investors are cautious amid global economic uncertainty. While Bitcoin has become one of the world's top 10 assets by market capitalization, alongside giants such as TSMC, Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla and Walmart, there are reasons for investors not to "go all in." With returns from traditional assets stable and fixed income yielding 4.7%, the impetus to turn to Bitcoin remains limited. Therefore, investors may choose to wait for more signals from the broader market before committing to a $70,000 price target.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election has exacerbated this mood of uncertainty. Leading candidate Vice President Kamala Harris has expressed a preference for highly regulated markets focused on protecting individual investors. This stance contrasts with former President Donald Trump’s more constructive views on integrating digital assets into traditional finance, which could affect Bitcoin’s adoption trajectory.
Bitcoin Miner Selling Pressure and On-Chain Activity
Concerns also stem from the bitcoin mining industry, which has struggled with profitability amid headwinds. The hash rate index, a measure of mining revenue potential, has fallen to near-record lows at $49 per quadrillion hash per second (PH/s), down about 50% since the halving in April. The drop highlights the financial pressures facing miners, who are critical to ensuring network security and whose moves could affect bitcoin’s price dynamics as they adjust their operating strategies.
Given that miners collectively hold more than 1.8 million BTC (equivalent to approximately $122.4 billion), many traders are concerned that these entities may be forced to sell aggressively.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Luxor Technology COO Ethan Vera said, “You’re going to continue to see negative profits, and they’re trying to hide how bad the industry is right now and how bad their operations are by diluting shareholders.”
On-chain data offers little comfort, as Bitcoin’s seven-day average of active addresses has remained largely unchanged over the past six months. This trend mirrors the stagnation of Bitcoin searches on Google, suggesting limited growth in public interest.
Bitcoin network active addresses, 7-day average. Source: Coin Metrics
Spot Bitcoin ETF Accumulation and Exchange Deposits
Some analysts expect that a massive accumulation of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could trigger a “supply shock.” However, this prospect does not fully explain the large number of BTC deposits on exchanges, which remain high. Current estimates range from 1.9 million to 3 million BTC, varying based on custodial activity by companies such as Coinbase.
Even if spot ETFs continue to accumulate an ambitious $2 billion per month, there is still at least $129.2 billion available in exchange reserves. Predicting the exact price that will trigger a massive sell-off remains challenging. However, it is conceivable that more BTC will enter the exchange, and some ETF holders may choose to sell their positions after significant gains.
It would take a combination of factors — including lower interest rates, improving mining profitability and strong ETF accumulation — for traders to feel confident enough to add to Bitcoin positions and push prices past the $70,000 threshold.
