Is $BTC Bitcoin repeating previous bull cycles? Are we repeating the same patterns we are all used to or is something different happening this time?


Bitcoin price cycles have long been a source of intrigue for investors and analysts alike. We can gain insight into potential price movements by comparing current trends to previous cycles, especially now that Bitcoin appears to be nearing the end of its consolidation period, with many wondering if the next surge is just around the corner.

Comparison of Bitcoin cycles

To start, it’s crucial to look at how Bitcoin has performed since hitting its recent cycle low. As we examine the data, a clear picture begins to form: Bitcoin’s current price (black line) is displaying similar patterns to previous bull cycles. While it has been a hectic period of consolidation, where the price has been relatively stagnant, there are key similarities when we compare this cycle to those of 2015-2018 (purple line) and 2018-2022 (blue line).

Figure 1: BTC growth from cycle lows showing similarities to our previous two cycles The current situation, in terms of percentage gains, is comparable to the 2018 and 2015 cycles. However, this comparison only scratches the surface. Price action alone doesn't tell the full story, so we need to dig deeper into investor behavior and other metrics that shape the Bitcoin market.

Investor behavior

A key metric that gives us insight into investor behavior is the MVRV Z-Score. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market price to its “realized price” (or cost basis), which represents the average price at which all Bitcoin on the network was accumulated. The Z-Score then simply standardizes the raw MVRV data for BTC volatility to exclude extreme outliers.

Analyzing metrics like this, rather than focusing solely on price action, will allow us to see patterns and similarities in our current cycle to previous ones, not only in dollar movements but also in investor habits and sentiment.

Correlation of movements

To better understand how the current cycle lines up with previous ones, we turned to data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which offers detailed insights via its API. Excluding our Genesis cycle, as there is little correlation, and isolating price and MVRV data from Bitcoin’s lowest closing prices to its highest points in our current cycle and the three previous cycles, we can see clear correlations.

Are we in for another double peak?

Of particular note is the strong correlation with the 2011-2013 cycle. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a double peak, where the price rose to new all-time highs twice before entering an extended bear market. If Bitcoin follows this pattern, we could be on the verge of significant price moves in the coming weeks. After overlaying the fractal of this period’s price action over our current cycle and standardizing the returns, the similarities are instantly noticeable.



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