Using the 'Top Logarithmic Growth' method to estimate the peak of Solana's bull market
1. Historical peak prices
First, understand the historical peak prices of Solana during past bull markets:
2021 Bull Market: Solana's historical highest point was approximately $260 (November 2021).
2. Growth multiple estimation
If we want to use past growth multiples to estimate future prices, we can refer to the growth of other similar assets or directly base our estimates on Solana's historical performance. Let's assume we also use Bitcoin's growth multiple as a reference.
3. Assumed growth multiples
Considering that Solana is a relatively young project and market demand is still growing, here are some scenario estimations of growth multiples:
Conservative scenario (2-3 times): If the future bull market growth is relatively conservative:
2 times: SOL may reach $520.
3 times: SOL may reach $780.
Neutral scenario (4-5 times): If market demand grows steadily:
4 times: SOL may reach $1,040.
5 times: SOL may reach $1,300.
Optimistic scenario (6-8 times): If market demand exceeds expectations:
6 times: SOL may reach $1,560.
8 times: SOL may reach $2,080.
4. Factors affecting prices
When estimating Solana's future price, the following factors should be considered:
Technological developments: Improvements in Solana's technology and growth of the ecosystem (such as decentralized applications, DeFi projects, etc.).
Market sentiment: The overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market and risk appetite.
Competition situation: The impact of other blockchain platforms (such as Ethereum, Avalanche, etc.) on Solana.
If we take a conservative scenario (2-3 times growth) and a neutral scenario (4-5 times growth) in estimating Solana (SOL)'s future price, we can consider the following growth multiples:
Growth multiples between conservative and neutral
Growth multiple: 3-4 times
This growth multiple, between conservative and neutral, can more reasonably reflect the potential market demand.
Estimating future prices
Based on Solana's historical highest price of approximately $260, we can estimate as follows:
1. 3 times growth:
Price: $260 × 3 = $780
2. 4 times growth:
Price: $260 × 4 = $1,040
Forecast range
Therefore, based on the estimation between conservative and neutral, Solana's future price forecast range is approximately between $780 and $1,040.
