Using the 'Top Logarithmic Growth' Method to Estimate Bitcoin's Peak Price

Historical Peak Growth Multiples

1. From the 2013 peak of $1,150 to the 2017 peak of $19,800, an increase of about 17 times.

2. From the 2017 peak of $19,800 to the 2021 peak of $69,000, an increase of about 3.5 times.

It can be seen that the growth multiples between each bull market peak have significantly decreased, indicating that the market is gradually maturing.

Estimating the Next Peak Price Based on Peak Growth Rate

Assuming that the growth multiple for the next peak decreases further, the following scenarios can be predicted:

1. Conservative Scenario (2 times)

If Bitcoin's peak growth decreases to 2 times, the next bull market peak price could be around $138,000.

2. Neutral Scenario (2.5-3 times)

If the growth multiple is slightly higher than the conservative scenario, Bitcoin could reach 2.5 to 3 times, i.e., $172,500 to $207,000.

3. Optimistic Scenario (3.5 times)

If market demand exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's peak could reach 3.5 times, i.e., $241,500.

Key Influencing Factors

Bitcoin's next bull market peak will still be affected by some external factors, such as:

Macroeconomic and interest rate policies: Market liquidity will directly affect investment demand.

Global regulatory trends: Changes in regulation may affect Bitcoin's demand and liquidity.

Institutional capital inflows and competition from other cryptocurrencies: New funds and competitors may influence Bitcoin's market positioning.

Based on these factors, the peak price of this bull market is likely to fluctuate between $138,000 and $241,500.

If we take the growth multiple between conservative and neutral scenarios, we can set Bitcoin's growth multiple between 2 and 2.5 times, making this estimation more consistent with the gradual slowdown of Bitcoin's growth.

Forecasting the Next Bull Market Peak Price (2 to 2.5 times growth)

Based on the last peak price of $69,000:

2 times growth: Bitcoin's peak price could reach $138,000.

2.5 times growth: Bitcoin's peak price could reach $172,500.

Forecast Range

Therefore, considering these estimates, Bitcoin's next bull market peak price is between $138,000 and $172,500. This range takes into account the potential growth of the market while also allowing for conservative growth space. $BTC