The market has gradually become quiet recently. Many colleagues have expressed that they can’t see the direction clearly or are forced to be friends with time. This is actually not the first time.

Looking back, since I entered the circle in 2016, I seem to have experienced four major garbage cycles. Although I often comfort myself in my heart that all this will pass, the positive cycle will come back, and liquidity will come back, but when we are really in the garbage time, we will feel more or less depressed or helpless.

Winter in Zhongguancun.

The first garbage time was when I entered the circle. At that time, the industry had just shifted from the cold winter of 2015 to the recovery period of 2016. OKCoin and Huobi, located in Zhongguancun, also stopped layoffs. The market was gradually recovering, and exchanges finally had positive income.

Since it was my first time entering the circle, that sense of novelty lasted with me for two years. This also means that no matter what black swans happen in the industry, I remain full of expectations for the industry.

Many of the exchange employees at that time have become industry leaders today. Few of them would mention that they once worked in a certain institute or rented a shared room for more than 2,000 yuan. Now they prefer to call themselves the founder of xxx or the managing partner of the fund. Their LinkedIn profiles have also changed from no educational background to an MBA from a new national university or Ivy League school.

Of course, the circle was actually more fun at that time. Everyone’s education and background levels were uneven. Basically every month on Startup Street, there were blockchain-related roadshows and lectures. The lecturer might be a rich man who used to sell beef to buy coins, or he might be the head of exchange operations who graduated from a technical school. The industry was really sinking in that era, and attending these meetings was really really down-to-earth.

Although there was no Meme at that time, there were many activities and CX plates, which made the industry very prosperous. That year, JuBi, Yuanbao, BitEra, and BitEra also had a hundred-fold increase every day. Although the liquidity was very poor, if you bought a copycat coin with 100,000 RMB, the price would slip by 5%, but at least they supported WeChat recharge.

That year, the first listed project I participated in was an IP coin of an internet celebrity in the circle. I was responsible for helping them revise the white paper and complete the connection with the exchange. Of course, there was no subsequent news about the token. After the listing, the investors and the internet celebrity made a lot of money, and everyone went their separate ways. The investors continued to return to their cultural field and packaged one internet celebrity after another, and the internet celebrity himself later transformed himself and went to OKCoin to work as the vice president for a year, and then faded out of the circle.

Therefore, during that cold winter, the industry was still very exciting, because there were no obstacles to the connection between tradition and the cryptocurrency circle, whether it was legal currency or law, and all kinds of strange projects were happening every day.

The end of the ICO.

The second garbage time was from the second half of 2018 to 2019. Many of my friends who were following the recommendations probably entered the circle after that wave of ICOs. At that time, the industry’s assets were seriously bubbled and overbought, so after the bubble burst, the market entered a long period of silence.

I still remember a small episode. It was when the bubble was just approaching. Many projects invested by Internet venture capital VCs in 2016 and 2017 generally ended in failure. So all the companies that could not raise A or B rounds of financing, or could not even afford liquidation, were pulled into the blockchain field and cut some money. That year, many VCs successfully recovered their losses, and the LPs were also doing well.

After that wave of industry bubble ended, there were actually not many companies left in the industry. Many people found that they had no income after issuing coins, and the investors didn’t care about it anymore after making money, so they all wanted to open exchanges. Therefore, in those two years, every time the industry held offline activities, there were more exchange BDs than project parties and media.

In fact, since 2019, I think the number of CEXs in the industry has never been as high as it was then. How high was it in 2019? I remember a media outlet held an offline conference, and they classified the registrations into: project parties, media, exchanges, and developers. As a result, the number of registrations from exchanges was three times that of the others combined.

Therefore, that wave of garbage time was also very boring. Although resonance disks and vortex disks like VDS appeared in mid-2019, they collapsed within 3 months, and the little spark that had just started disappeared in an instant.

This also led to the fact that during that cold winter, the exchanges that were forced to PVP could only try to develop various new functions. As a result, futures contracts became popular that year, and almost everyone had a long or short order for BTC, and various order-leading masters and software emerged one after another.

In the end, I and everyone else spent that wave of garbage time in an environment where everyone was placing an order. Basically, when we went to meet people offline, no one was not placing an order.

The collapse of the Lego set.

The third garbage time is what most of my friends have experienced, which was in the second half of 2022 and 2023. During this period, the industry was basically filled with bad news every day. I was also starting a business at that time, and it should be my second company.

In fact, when I saw LUNA collapse, FTX go bankrupt, and ETH liquidated, I didn’t feel anything at the time. First, I didn’t hold many assets. Because of my business, I sold my faith in Bitcoin at a high point (around 60,000 US dollars); second, it was my second round of financing, which had already been closed, and everyone had literally and verbally agreed to participate, including the investment departments of first-tier exchanges.

But when I really felt that the industry had entered a cold winter, I tried to get everyone to make financing payments. The general feedback I got was: xxx fund was trapped in FTX, xxx investment director was laid off, xxx said that the CFO would not lend money and the finances were tight. After urging for 2 months in a row without any results (although a few people fulfilled their promises and did give the money), I decided to keep going and try various self-help methods, such as making small games, outsourcing, and market orders. But no matter how hard I tried, the market would always give a blow to reality. In the end, the employees couldn't stand it anymore, and when they saw that there was no money and no salary, they dispersed, and I was forced to enter garbage time.

"You should do less in a bear market." This is what an investor told me afterwards, and I think it is true. If I had suspended everything and maintained minimum operations during the market crash, perhaps I would have had some bullets left for the ETF recovery at the end of 2023.

At that time, I didn’t know how to face the failure of my business or how to face investors. Many experienced colleagues said that it was no big deal and that at most I could just disappear for a while. But maybe I still couldn’t let go of this burden in my heart, so I told every investor that I had failed. What I still remember most was that after I finished talking to Suji at TG, he might not have been very happy that day. Then I was continuously outflowed and asked to sell my house to make up for the loss (but at that time, I had neither a house nor Bitcoin). Starting a business directly made me poor again, so today I also suggest that you don’t start a business if you have nothing to do. Of course, my relationship with Suji is still very good afterwards, but I cried that time.

But fortunately, I met a girl I liked, and we went to Japan together. There, I was healed by the environment, and I also met with netizens who I hadn't seen for 3 years. At the same time, I also found that starting a business in the past few years has made my health worse, and all the physical examination indicators are very bad. So I spent the following garbage time learning Japanese and organizing my body every day, and occasionally meeting with former investors to discuss the possibility of market recovery.

But looking back, perhaps this was destined, because those friends who are still rolling in seem to be facing bigger problems today, higher valuations, higher financing amounts, higher user expectations, more debt, a worse market, and tighter bet deadlines.

Low liquidity.

The fourth garbage time is now. I believe many friends are suffering at this time, unless you are having a lot of fun playing Meme and successfully catch up with the hippo, the lucky cat and the goat, but I believe most people have not caught up.

Because I recently launched more than 50 memes, and I only caught up with the hippopotamus wave.

The fourth garbage time made me see things more clearly. First, I was no longer starting a business (raising a team in the true sense). I felt that this kind of business was beyond my ability. My friends who were still starting a business had also drastically reduced the number of employees compared to the previous two years. Second, I was in a new environment. Yes, I later moved to Japan and became a small resident in the suburbs of Tokyo. I found that this place was similar to Singapore and Hong Kong. They were both good connecting points for practitioners from the East and the West. Every week, I could meet colleagues from different countries and have a cup of coffee and chat together.

But during this wave of garbage time, each of us knows what happened, that is, the copycat market, that is, the real circle, has no real new users and liquidity.

You may think about TON? What about Line? But their effects are not very lasting. In fact, judging from the feedback from market makers and exchanges, these converted users are not many, and they still cannot stop exchanges from continuing to lay off employees.

So… stop, yes, stop, don’t make any more trouble, continue to be yourself and watch the market, learn some Japanese and English when you have nothing to do, then exercise, read some articles, and then wait for 2025 to come, and at the same time prepare for a new narrative.

Believe me, maybe one day when you are bored and sitting in front of the computer, the bull market will come quietly. At this time, you will know more languages, learn more tools, or know more people. They may help you inadvertently, and you will also help them.

In the blink of an eye, another week has passed. The autumn weather has brought many new scenery. In short, I hope you can also spend this boring garbage time and improve yourself.

AB Kuai Dong
October 25
Written at home in the suburbs of Tokyo.