There are about two weeks left until the U.S. presidential election. Many Bitcoin enthusiasts expect Donald Trump to be the winner. The reasoning behind this idea is that if Trump wins the election and becomes president, he will implement policies to free the cryptocurrency industry from the clutches of regulators. Many investors predict that if Trump is indeed elected, Bitcoin could rise to $100K!
It seems that the scales of victory are also tipping toward Trump. The probability of Trump winning on Polymarket has risen to 64.5%, leading Harris by nearly 30 percentage points. Recently, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and others have collectively voiced their opinions, and Wall Street's 'smart money' has begun to all in on the 'Trump trade.'
'Trump trades' refer to a series of investment operations based on investor expectations of Trump's policies, usually including shorting long-term government bonds, going long on cryptocurrencies, and investing in higher-risk stocks like small-cap stocks. QCP Capital also noted that the prices of crypto assets are positively correlated with the probability of Trump's victory.
Why has Bitcoin become an important factor in the U.S. election?
BTC first appeared over three election cycles ago. However, the 2024 U.S. presidential election is the first time Bitcoin (and the broader cryptocurrency) is seen as a crucial election issue. The ideal fervent supporters outlined in Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper have become an influential group among single-issue voters, and despite being affected by the bear market and broader industry turmoil (like the collapse of the once-lauded cryptocurrency exchange FTX) in recent years, they remain committed to the cause. Recently, the tide has turned for the industry and its supporters, with Bitcoin's price stabilizing and institutions like the world's largest asset manager BlackRock claiming Bitcoin is a store of value for this generation. As the campaign heats up, the question remains: what role will this modern form of currency play in the future of the world's strongest economy?
According to the Federal Reserve's data, by 2024, the original purchasing power of the dollar will be only 3%, which has led many developing economies to consider trading in currencies other than the dollar. Some are also concerned that monetary policy decisions made to avoid recession might actually lead to severe inflation and economic downturn for the dollar. In recent years, the economy has been oscillating between explosive growth driven by loose monetary policy and the brink of economic collapse exacerbated by an impending debt crisis. The escalating geopolitical tensions and conflicts in recent years have further intensified this volatility.
This chaos has led to widening wealth gaps, with the upper class's wealth multiplying while the middle class's wealth continues to dwindle. Since its inception, Bitcoin has been viewed by many as a potential hedge tool for the middle class against economic fluctuations. People hope it to be an anti-inflation asset that can bring economic independence to the increasingly declining middle class, but the dollar remains the backbone of the global economy. Although the purchasing power of the dollar is declining, it still retains the trust of many retail investors.
Today, America finds itself facing unprecedented dilemmas: on one hand, the dollar is depreciating; on the other, Bitcoin may solve many pressing financial issues facing the middle class. How to discuss and resolve the latter will have the most significant impact on the future of the world's most important economy in 25 years.
So why does the crypto world want Trump to win?
The future of cryptocurrency is one of the most discussed technologies globally, and there seems to be a clear divide on this issue between Donald Trump and the soon-to-be-outgoing Biden administration.
Trump promises to make America the 'global cryptocurrency capital' and create a 'national strategic Bitcoin reserve' similar to the U.S. government's gold reserves to win the votes of crypto enthusiasts.
Last month, he launched a new crypto company called World Liberty Financial. Although he provided little detail, he said, 'I think cryptocurrency is one of the things we must do.'
This marks a huge turnaround from three years ago when he viewed Bitcoin as 'looking like a scam' and a threat to the dollar.
Trump's new enthusiasm contrasts sharply with the Biden administration, with Harris as the vice president. In recent years, the White House has launched a comprehensive crackdown on crypto companies.
Can Bitcoin really reach $100K?
To conclude, if Trump is elected, then Bitcoin breaking new highs at $100K is just a matter of time!
If the upcoming U.S. elections in November and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings affect the market again, then the time you have to hesitate is really getting less and less. Once the market takes off, it basically doubles up. At that time, you will fear a downturn because the rise is too fast!
Last week, BlackRock increased its holdings by over 17,000 Bitcoins. Clearly, the increase is large and fast. Institutions are entering the market rapidly while the audience is still hesitant.
You don't have much time left, embrace the cycle and enjoy the era's dividends!
Finally, let's talk about Memes.
Why will a meme asset rise in the long term?
Simple: more buyers, fewer sellers.
Where do buy orders come from? Good narratives, standing on hot topics, with large funds looking to take control, and small funds focused on trends;
Where do sell orders come from? Good communities and diamond hands.
Where do good communities and diamond hands come from?
It's not just about drawing some nice pictures to be the next Doge, drawing some mysterious patterns is called a cult.
Belief is a very simple word with a complex meaning.
It seems only children would believe; adults only deceive each other.
So you will find that those shouting to believe in something in the community may not believe at all.
So, a good meme community should be,
Ask yourself, 'Do I believe it myself?'
Then ask, 'How many people still believe?'
If the answer is optimistic, then it's a good asset.
A bad meme community, it should be,
A few groups that don't even believe in themselves try to convince others to 'believe';
However, everyone is not stupid; they are just pretending to 'believe' and trying to deceive more people into 'believing.'
Thus, the 'community' shouting 'believe' immediately scatters when faced with problems.
