There is an arbitrage opportunity in the U.S. election that everyone might be interested in. Currently, there is about a 6-7% price difference over the past ten days, which is very high on an annualized basis.

To put it simply, one leg is Polymarket and the other leg is IB. The former, Poly, is being pushed up by crypto enthusiasts, inflating Harris's odds, creating a premium, and we're arbitraging this premium back.

Currently, Poly shows 64:35.8, while IB shows 59:41. You can buy Harris to win on Poly and buy Harris to lose or Trump to win on IB.

Why not buy Trump to win for hedging? If you do, you would buy Trump to win on IB and buy Trump to lose on Poly. There’s a small risk here: if Trump dies, you would still lose money. So betting on Harris to lose for hedging is a bit more stable. I won’t say more; everyone knows how to operate since they are seasoned players.