This can explain several anomalies that occurred during last week's market:
The ETF saw significant net inflows last week and the week before, totaling over $2.3 billion, but the CB spot market did not see the usual increase in transactions and instead maintained small sales.
Some main futures in the market have seen this sign and believe that there is cross-trading day subscription arbitrage with the ETF.
This suggests that some ETF asset management parties, after receiving user subscription funds for the ETF, did not immediately buy BTC spot but chose to wait for a while, buying after the price pullback, thus achieving arbitrage, essentially shorting the user's subscription order.
Thus, the main futures began to frantically drive up prices, raising the price from 62000 to 69000 within a week, causing a lot of discomfort for the ETF, as the higher it goes, the harder it becomes to buy back the BTC subscribed by users at the original price.
In a state of unbearable pressure, the main force of spot at CB directly placed huge sell orders at high levels, intimidating the market while hoping for a price pullback or for the futures bulls to create a 'long kill long' situation.
As long as the price drops, you can buy the originally subscribed BTC spot in batches, and even when the user decides to sell the ETF, you can directly return the funds that haven't been used to buy the spot.
Thus, we saw last week, when the ETF had significant net inflows, that CB's BTCUSD not only continued to decrease in premium but also did not show any obvious large purchases in the spot market, indicating that the ETF managers didn't buy the spot at all...
Once the experienced main futures raised the price, they could wait for the ETF to take over with the spot (the law requires them to buy the spot), so during last night's drop, CME and aggregated futures trading pairs significantly closed their long positions, yet the price was supported by large spot buy orders from Coinbase...
You can see from the CVD of each exchange during the pullback period that almost all are selling, with only Coinbase making large purchases...
The low net inflow of ETFs yesterday, and even possibly negative, indirectly indicates that these buy orders from CB likely only came from last week's ETF subscriptions, and it is very likely that profits were not stolen from users but were bought back at an average price for the BTC spot that should have been purchased last week.
These buy orders became the exit liquidity for the main futures in this round of price increase...
According to the main growth of futures positions, the main futures are at CME, followed by Binance, as CME has seen the fastest growth in positions lately. From the current total position, this process is still ongoing, meaning that CB should still see continued spot buying in the future...
Hahaha, if this conspiracy theory holds, then the main forces of CME and Binance futures are truly impressive! They caught the ETF managers off guard and took everything from them in one go...
Let me briefly summarize my conspiracy theory!
The arbitrage between ETF subscriptions and the asset management side purchasing spot can be realized through time differences. In simple terms, it means shorting the user's spot, waiting for the price to drop, and then buying back the spot to make a profit, or waiting for the user to sell the ETF at a low price to realize profits.
The short position of the ETF's spot was squeezed by the futures market, ultimately achieving the operation of 'futures driving up prices, waiting for ETF spot to take over' to obtain exit liquidity.
If this logic holds, then last week's bullish futures market may not have originated from Trump Trade sentiment or Carry Trade liquidity overflow but rather a squeeze by the futures market against ETFs, stealing user profits through long-term wide fluctuations!
After all, such operations for ETFs have already occurred in gold ETFs, and the most suitable market condition for such operations is long-term wide fluctuations in high-level ranges.
Since the ETF holds the most controllable chips and funds in the current market, controlling the market isn't impossible.
This ultimately explains why, after BTC passed through the spot ETF, even though it broke historical highs, it could still have a wide fluctuation at high positions for over seven months!
Because such market conditions can prevent ETF investors from significantly exiting (there's a massive spot support every time the price drops), reducing the ETF's asset management fees, while continuously betting against users in the fluctuations to earn excess returns.
In simple terms, it means eating, taking, and grabbing!
Capital! As long as there are profits, what can't be done?
Finally, I want to emphasize again! The above content belongs to conspiracy theory! I do not have and cannot obtain accurate data to prove it; the only supporting evidence is the CB premium and unusual transaction conditions, but last week's significant net inflows in ETF are visible to everyone.
Therefore, if you have any different opinions or data to support this conspiracy theory, feel free to point them out in the comments. I might be wrong, and I hope to obtain accurate data to verify my error!
Because no one wants this ETF, which brings hope to BTC, to ultimately become a capital hunt; the prey has just become larger...
This article is sponsored by #Pionex 派网3.0 | @pionex_zh
