According to the betting website Polymarket, Trump's probability of winning is 60%, ahead of Harris' 40%.
One thing that cannot be ignored is Musk's influence and money ability.
Recently, Musk chose to directly give money to voters while helping Trump to campaign.
For example, voters who sign the petition in Pennsylvania will be selected directly from the voters to receive a lucky $1 million reward, and the first million dollars was distributed over the weekend.
As for other swing states, Musk also promised that he would give $47, equivalent to more than 300 RMB, to everyone who recommended someone else to sign the petition, with no upper limit.
Although this petition does not represent a vote, it corresponds to two major bills that require support for American democracy.
The first is freedom of speech.
The second is gun freedom.
The second one, in particular, is aimed at the Democratic Party, because the Democratic Party has always advocated strict control of guns.
Therefore, collecting petitions before the war is basically equivalent to canvassing votes for Trump.
Under Musk's super appeal, the balance of victory has begun to tilt toward Trump. Preliminary data currently shows that Trump has achieved a significant lead in the seven swing states.
From another perspective, the two core beneficiaries of Trump's transaction are Bitcoin and Trump's own company, Trump Media Technology Group DJT.
The former has risen 61.5% this month, while the latter has risen as much as 84% this month.
Of course, there are only a dozen working days until Election Day on November 5.
By this logic, the Trump trading sector may see more dramatic fluctuations.
My previous article clearly mentioned what kind of results Trump might bring once he came to power:
Let me summarize it for you roughly:
1. RMB/USD
First, after Trump takes office, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate may increase, because Trump is very likely to impose higher tariffs on rabbits.
In many previous interviews, he mentioned that the tariffs would be increased to at least 60%.
Since the United States is China's largest trading partner, the result is that domestic and foreign trade export business is damaged, US dollar reserves are reduced, and currency depreciation occurs.
For example, on March 22, 2018, Trump launched the sweater war, and then the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated from the lowest level of 6.2 to 7.2.
According to Goldman Sachs' expectations, if Trump comes to power and eventually pushes tariffs up to 60%, the RMB exchange rate may go to around 8.
On the contrary, if Harris comes to power, the trade war between the two sides may not escalate to a greater extent, which is relatively good for the RMB.
2. US stocks
As for the U.S. stock market, Trump emphasized further tax cuts for companies, so the operating performance of the U.S. stock market may further strengthen.
Bank of America suggested that if Trump reduces the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, it will increase U.S. stock earnings by about 4%.
Harris suggested raising taxes on US companies from 21% to 28%, which would hit US stock earnings by 5%.
3. A-crotch
After being targeted by the trade war in 2018, A-shares ranked last in the global market and performed relatively poorly.
If Trump still regards the rabbit as the first imaginary enemy, raises tariffs, and even adopts the so-called alliance with Russia to contain China, then the A-share market may be bearish.
If Harris continues Biden's policies, we can then focus more on solving domestic economic problems, and may be given more buffer time.
4. Long-term US Treasury bonds
As Trump pushes up foreign tariffs, the cost of living for American residents will increase significantly. At the same time, Trump also hopes to cut taxes for domestic companies, which will lead to an increase in domestic inflation.
As inflation rises, the Federal Reserve has less room to cut interest rates, which is unfavorable for long-term US Treasury bonds.
Harris, on the contrary, favors long-term US Treasuries.
5. Gold
During Trump's presidency, gold performed worse than the S&P 500. Since he is a peace advocate and focuses on the U.S. economy during his administration, safe-haven funds have neglected gold.
In addition, its policies are more friendly to Bitcoin and the implementation of a strong dollar may intensify the diversion of gold, which is not conducive to gold.
However, it depends on whether there are natural disasters or man-made disasters. The large-scale monetary easing during the epidemic also drove up the price of gold.
Of course, although Trump has a greater chance of winning now, everything is still unknown before the actual vote. After all, it is not the first time that the American polls have turned upside down.
