Let's talk about mining this time.

After the real estate market cooled down in 2021, I transitioned into the crypto space. Since I had previously operated a computer shop and was familiar with installation and repair, I quickly got the hang of mining. At that time, the hot topic was $ETH , with a 3060ti graphics card rising from over 3000 to over 6000. While mining and trading, I was fortunate that my experience with the computer shop and stocks allowed me to adapt to the crypto market without stepping into major pitfalls, resulting in overall gains that outweighed the smaller losses. Throughout the process of mining and trading, my experience has been that understanding a bit about mining is beneficial for better market insight. After all, Bitcoin is a mined coin, and there are still many mined coins in the market, such as $ETC , $KAS, etc.

As a miner, I primarily engage with mined coins because I am also involved in production, giving me a better understanding of their costs. Speaking of mined coins, a significant concept is the shutdown price. The shutdown price is the price at which the output of coins from the machine cannot cover electricity costs. It is generally believed that when the coin price drops to the shutdown price, it becomes stagnant because some miners will shut down and stop producing, while those still mining at a loss will hold onto their coins until prices rise again. Recently, it has been reported that the mining cost after Bitcoin's halving is over $40,000, so is $40,000 the iron bottom for Bitcoin? Personally, I don't think so. In previous bear markets, Bitcoin has always fallen below the shutdown price because it is dynamic. When it reaches this price, some miners with high electricity costs or older machines will shut down, while those with lower or even free electricity will still be profitable. Moreover, after shutdown, total hash rate decreases, and the remaining machines will produce more. The bear market is also meant to eliminate older machines and wash out the less committed retail investors, so I personally predict that the bottom of the next bear market will be around $30,000, and it is very likely that we will never see $BTC below $30,000 again in our lifetime. If anyone has any interests, feel free to leave a message or DM me, and I will choose the most popular topics to discuss with everyone gradually.