1. Market Review
The market of the cryptocurrency market has been very good in the past two days. Bitcoin has stabilized at around 62,000, and the prices of other altcoins have been soaring.
Currently, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, but the price of Bitcoin seems to have been fluctuating in a narrow range.
At present, I think Bitcoin will still reach a new high, and the price should be between 80,000 and 100,000 yuan. After all, 100,000 yuan is a psychological barrier, and the possibility of a breakthrough upward is not too great.
However, Bitcoin’s new high may have to wait until the middle and late stages of China and the United States’ monetary easing, so that enough funds can overflow into the cryptocurrency circle. As for now, it is not suitable to increase or reduce positions significantly, so just hold on to it for now.
2. A 7% Arbitrage Opportunity
The opportunity for risk-free arbitrage with a 7% yield is right in front of you!
I found that there was a price difference in odds on different platforms regarding the US presidential election, and thus found an arbitrage method with a risk-free rate of return of up to 7%.
Prerequisite: Interactive Brokers account
As we all know, the prerequisite for arbitrage is price difference.
For Interactive Brokers: Harris's odds = 1 / 0.51 ≈ 1.96 (i.e. betting 100U, if Harris wins, you will get 196U), Trump's odds = 1 / 0.49 ≈ 2.04
For Polymarket: Harris's odds of winning = 1 / 0.44 ≈ 2.27, Trump's odds of winning = 1 / 0.56 ≈ 1.79
Since there is a price difference, we can arbitrage. We need to bet on Trump's victory at Interactive Brokers and bet on Harris's victory at Polymarket. In this way, no matter who is elected, we can make a profit.
Let's calculate the exact bet amounts (assuming I have $200 total):
- If you bet x dollars on Trump’s victory at Interactive Brokers, you need to bet y dollars on Harris’ victory at Polymarket, so the total investment = x + y = 200 dollars
- If Trump wins: Payoff = 2.04x - 200; If Harris wins: Payoff = 2.27y - 200
- To achieve risk-free arbitrage, the two returns should be equal: 2.04x - 200 = 2.27y - 200
- Solving the above equation with x + y = 200, we get: x ≈ 114.94 yuan y ≈ 85.06 yuan,
-Therefore, the optimal betting strategy is: bet $105.33 on Trump to win at Interactive Brokers and bet $94.67 on Harris to win at Polymarket
-Finally, if Trump wins, our gain is 2.04*105.33-200=14.87; if Harris wins, our gain is 2.27*94.67-200=14.9
In summary, our investment is $200. No matter who is elected as the US president, the return is about $14.9, and the risk-free rate of return is 7.45%.
Considering the fees for deposits and withdrawals, the fees for buying and selling U, and the platform fees, the wear and tear is at most 3%, which means that the risk-free rate of return is also around 4%.
If you have funds in the cryptocurrency circle and Interactive Brokers also has funds, and you don’t need to withdraw or deposit funds, then the rate of return should be able to reach 6%.
If you need to place a bet, recalculate it based on the real-time odds and your own bet amount.
3. List of currencies to watch next week
A new week has come again, and it’s the same old show: a list of currencies worth watching next week
$BTC: Currently, BTC continues to hover around 62,000, but the US stock market is constantly hitting new highs. I wonder if funds will overflow from Bitcoin and drive Bitcoin to a new high.
$Meme: Meme is the biggest hot spot in the current market, and all Memes are rising wildly. But when everyone is making money, it is not recommended to increase positions vigorously. Now my suggestion is to reduce positions and stop profits when the market is high.
$SCR: This is the first pre-market trading token on Binance, and the project team spent a lot of money to get listed on Binance. I don’t know if it will open low and close high. I look forward to its performance next week.
$Puffer: The Puffer Finance project is going to issue coins by staking Ethereum again. The airdrop will start on the 15th. At the moment, it seems that it will not be listed on Binance, which makes me a little disappointed.
$Eigen: Eigen will unlock $40 million worth of tokens next week, accounting for 6% of the circulation. When this coin was first launched, its circulation market value was $300 million, but it suddenly changed to $600 million. For projects with uncertain circulation, I currently have no plans to recommend them.
At present, the market is very Fomo for Meme and Tugou. My suggestion is to take profits when the market is high and reduce participation in Tugou PVP. Otherwise, you will definitely lose money, because I have lost a lot in Tugou PVP recently.
Since there is a price difference, we can arbitrage. We need to bet on Trump's victory at Interactive Brokers and bet on Harris's victory at Polymarket. In this way, no matter who is elected, we can make a profit.
If you want to seize this bull market, it is definitely too late to learn and sell now.
It would be great if someone could get you started quickly.
I am Hong Jie, welcome to communicate
