The impact of the US presidential election on the global financial market is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. Foreign exchange market:

- Exchange rate fluctuations: The policy proposals of different candidates and their likelihood of being elected will cause exchange rate fluctuations. For example, Citigroup has predicted that if Trump wins the 2024 election, the US dollar may rise by 5%. Because his policies may include new tax cuts, stimulus measures, and increased trade tariffs on other countries, these measures may attract capital inflows into the United States and push the dollar stronger. If a candidate who supports free trade and tends to maintain the existing international economic order is elected, the trend of the US dollar may be relatively stable.

- Changes in the relative value of currencies: The election results will also affect the exchange rates of other currencies against the US dollar. For example, if Trump-style protectionist trade policies are on the rise, European currencies such as the euro may be adversely affected by trade tensions. Emerging market currencies will also fluctuate due to changes in US trade policies. The currencies of countries with strong trade ties with the United States, such as the Mexican peso, may depreciate significantly under trade protection policies.

2. Stock Market:

- US stock market:

- Expected policy impact: Candidates’ economic policy propositions have a significant impact on the U.S. stock market. If the candidate advocates lowering corporate taxes and relaxing regulations, like some of the policies Trump has proposed, it will increase corporate profit expectations and may push up the U.S. stock market; conversely, if the candidate advocates raising corporate taxes and strengthening regulations, such as Harris's proposal to reduce corporate The plan to increase taxes from 21% to 28% may put some pressure on the U.S. stock market in the short term.

- Uncertainty and volatility: Uncertainty during the election period will make investors cautious, leading to increased stock market volatility. Key events such as debates during the election and the release of poll data may trigger short-term market fluctuations. When the election is approaching and the results are not yet clear, investors tend to take a wait-and-see attitude, and capital flows will become unstable.

- Other countries' stock markets:

- Trade policy connection: The results of the US election will affect its trade relations with other countries, and thus affect the stock markets of related countries. If the US implements a trade protection policy, the stocks of companies in export-oriented industries such as automobiles and electronics in countries with a high degree of export dependence, such as Germany and Japan, may be impacted because the exports of companies in these countries to the US market may be restricted.

- Changes in capital flows: The results of the US election will also affect the flow of global funds. If the market believes that the political and economic environment in the United States is unstable, funds may flow out of the United States and flow into stock markets in other countries, especially those with stable economic growth and low political risks.

3. Bond Market:

- Interest rate changes: The fiscal policy proposals of the candidates will affect the interest rates in the bond market. If they advocate large-scale fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, it may increase the government's fiscal deficit, leading to an increase in the market's supply of bonds, thereby pushing up bond interest rates. For example, "Bond King" Gross once said that if Trump is elected, it will exacerbate the United States' growing deficit, which will be more "bad" and "destructive" to the bond market.

- Market confidence: The uncertainty of the election results and the policy uncertainty of the candidates will affect investors' confidence in the bond market. If investors are worried about the future economic outlook or lack confidence in the government's fiscal policy, they may reduce their investment in bonds, leading to volatility in the bond market.

4. Commodity Market:

- Energy market: The United States occupies an important position in the global energy market. The results of its election will affect energy policies and geopolitical situations, and thus oil prices. If a candidate who advocates supporting U.S. energy production and promoting energy exports is elected, it may increase the supply of oil and natural gas, exerting downward pressure on oil prices; on the contrary, if the policy towards the Middle East is tougher, it may trigger geopolitical tensions and lead to higher oil prices.

- Metal market: The election results also have an impact on the metal market. For example, if the large-scale infrastructure construction plan advocated by Trump is implemented, it will increase the demand for metals such as copper and aluminum, pushing up metal prices; while trade protection policies may affect the international trade and supply of metals, leading to price fluctuations.

5. Emerging Markets:

- Capital flows: Emerging markets tend to be more sensitive to US policy changes. If the US implements trade protection policies or monetary policy adjustments after the election, it may lead to capital outflows from emerging markets, because investors will withdraw funds to the US or other safer markets to avoid risks.

- Economic growth expectations: The results of the US election will affect economic growth expectations in emerging markets. If US policies are not conducive to global economic growth, emerging market exports and economic development may be suppressed, and investor confidence in emerging markets will also decline.

In short, the US presidential election is a political event with great influence, and its results will affect the trend and stability of global financial markets through multiple channels such as policy expectations, market confidence, and capital flows. Investors need to pay close attention to the election process and the policy propositions of the candidates so as to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.

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