Several important economic data came out today. Powell said before that CPI is expected to drop to 2.2. This September's annual CPI was 2.4, and the previous value was 2.5, which was lower than expected, but it fell overall, so it fell after pulling up. The core CPI increased from 3.2 to 3.3. The core CPI is the statistical data after excluding consumption and energy.
Because the oil price range was 65-74 in September and 66-78 in October, and October is not over yet, if the oil price reaches 100 by the end of the year as I predicted before, it will be difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in November and December because CPI will rebound. The United States has never had a precedent of raising interest rates after opening a channel for interest rate cuts, but this time the economy is improving but interest rates are still cut, and the precedent of a 50 basis point rate cut is set. There is a possibility of a subsequent interest rate hike, but it is very small.
Judging from the current data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in November is very small. 50 basis points is no longer possible, but there is a certain probability of 25 basis points. I personally think that there may be a rate cut. However, whether it is a 25 basis point cut or not, it is not a good thing for us. When expectations are not met, it is bad news. The downward trend is relatively certain. There will definitely be repeated pulls in the middle. There will also be benefits from BTC as a strategic reserve in the future, and there will also be benefits for cryptocurrencies after the election.
Market Review and Analysis
In the early morning, the price of Bitcoin fell directly below the 60,000 mark, and hit the lowest point of the intraday support level of 59,000 mentioned yesterday, and then rebounded. The lowest point of Bitcoin reached 2330, which was 10 US dollars away from the intraday support level of 2320. The market went up and down, and Bitcoin was testing step by step. At the same time, it can be seen from this market that there are still many people entering the market to buy the bottom and cover their positions. Such a trend will only make Gouzhuang happier to ship goods. The negative decline mode, step-by-step decline, and step-by-step trapped orders also give the market hope. Otherwise, the market will inevitably see a large-scale stampede, which is not a good thing for Gouzhuang. Waves of rebounds and waves of profits are maximized.
Today's market analysis
BTC
The intraday support reached 59,000 points for a rebound. The market is currently back above 60,000. This position has been broken. The small-level back-and-forth fluctuation will not be very direct. The intraday resistance position is the 60,600-61,200 range. Today, a test has been achieved, so it depends on whether the continued correction at the intraday level will directly touch the 58,000 position. The intraday support point can focus on the 57,000-58,000 range.
ETH
The rebound from the lowest support level of 2330 in the early morning is equivalent to reaching this support level. You can pay attention to the second support level of 2280 at the intraday level. The resistance level has not changed yet. Just continue to pay attention to the 2420 level. However, if this level is broken at the intraday level, you should pay attention to the resistance level of the upward dive in the 2460-2480 range. However, the current trend is unlikely to see such an upward dive, so let's look at the first support level of 2280-2320 during the day.
Bitcoin's recent decline is relatively mild, consistent with historical bull market patterns
Despite the volatility in Bitcoin prices, recent Bitcoin market activity reflects a degree of resilience. The declines in this bull cycle have been relatively small and continue to follow the patterns observed in previous market uptrends. Despite the recent pullback, the overall structure of the Bitcoin market remains consistent with historical bull markets, reflecting both the resilience of demand and the limited size of the recent correction. The report emphasizes that although Bitcoin has experienced adjustments, these adjustments are much milder than in previous cycles.
The big bitcoin fluctuates widely, and the market where the cottage industry is falling like a dog is expected to start again. This wave of cottage industry rebound is just a short-lived flash of light. As the saying goes, leave when you make money, don’t be nostalgic, don’t have a pattern! The dealer will not let you go just because you are a novice!
