Bitcoin hits $90,000 under Trump, drops to $40,000 under Kamala, says Bernstein
The current administration of Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris as vice president, has been widely criticized by the cryptocurrency industry, which complains about regulatory pressure. Donald Trump has shown himself to be in favor of the sector, having even spoken at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Analysts at global research and investment firm Bernstein have made a bold prediction about the impact of the US presidential election outcome on the price of Bitcoin.
According to a letter sent to its clients this Wednesday (9), reproduced by The Block, Bitcoin could rise to 90 thousand dollars if Donald Trump wins and fall to 40 thousand dollars if Kamala Harris wins.
A Polymarket survey indicates that the race is tight, with the lead changing frequently. Trump currently has 53.3% of the votes, retaking the position this week after Elon Musk appeared on the candidate's campaign trail.
US Election Expected to Have Major Impact on Bitcoin Price
The current administration of Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris as vice president, has been widely criticized by the cryptocurrency industry, which complains about regulatory pressure. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has shown himself to be in favor of the sector, having even spoken at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Given this, many believe that the outcome of the US presidential election will have an impact on the market.
For Bernstein analysts, this difference could reach US$ 1 trillion.
“A Trump victory would be incrementally positive for bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets,” wrote Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia.
“In the scenario of a Trump victory, we expect bitcoin to reach a new record high (between $80,000 and $90,000), surpassing its previous record of $74,000. In the event of a Harris victory, we believe that, in the short term, bitcoin could test a new low in the $40,000 range (a value not yet tested in the recent correction).”
In other words, according to this forecast, Bitcoin's market value would be between US$790 billion with Kamala's election and US$1.78 trillion with Trump's victory, a difference of US$1 trillion, not counting the impact on other smaller cryptocurrencies.
While some industry players have already declared their support for Trump, others have expressed concern, noting that the former president is only playing politics to win votes and get elected.
Trump vs. Kamala feud is heated
Data from 270towin indicates that the Democrats, Kamala's party, have 226 state votes almost guaranteed, while the Republicans, Trump's party, have 219. To be elected, candidates need 270 state votes and, therefore, are competing for 93 that still appear as undecided.
US presidential candidates need at least 270 state votes to secure a majority and be elected. Source: 270towin.
US presidential candidates need at least 270 state votes to secure a majority and be elected. Source: 270towin.
Despite Kamala's slight advantage in the above poll, Trump appears ahead in Polymarket's prediction market. The difference is 7.1%. More than US$1.5 billion has already been bet on this poll.
Donald Trump appears ahead of Kamala Harris, but the race is tight. Source: Polymarket.
Donald Trump appears ahead of Kamala Harris, but the race is tight. Source: Polymarket.
Finally, the elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 5. Given analysts' comments, the market should expect high volatility around the date, especially since nothing is set in stone.