CITIC Securities: China's stock market is transitioning from "blitzkrieg" to "tug-of-war"
CITIC Securities Research Report said that from the three-part "confidence revaluation bull" theory, the first stage of "blitzkrieg" was driven by confidence and funds, which was manifested in the surge of short-term indexes. At present, the Hong Kong stock market has entered the second stage of "tug-of-war", and the A-share market may also enter this stage soon. The early stage of the market's tug-of-war is mainly reflected in funds and emotions, while the later stage of the tug-of-war mainly reflects the policy and fundamental expectations. In the short term, the current overheating of the market may bring technical adjustments at any time, while institutional replenishment and retail investors entering the market will support the market, resulting in a shallow adjustment. In the end, the market is likely to form a volatile tug-of-war trend. In the long term, the implementation of the central bank's new tools, the strength of fiscal policy and the improvement of fundamentals will become the focus of market attention, especially compared with fiscal and monetary policies, the decision-making, introduction and implementation time is slower, there are more factors to consider, and the market needs to wait more, while the improvement of fundamentals is a slow variable, which takes several months to gradually confirm.
