The message that BTC’s current market situation conveys to me is that it is weak, very weak.
The bottom divergence of the indicator appeared at the 1-2 hour level, but I chose not to do it because of the small level, poor stability, and the possibility of being reversed by a K-line at any time. The most important thing is that I didn’t check the market and didn’t receive the points below 60,200 because I was having dinner just now. The best opportunity has been missed. The overall market has not moved out of the large range of shocks since 49,000, and the gameplay within the range is still meaningful for reference.
Wait until a force that can influence the market trend appears, otherwise, the market will continue to move in its original direction.
Technical Analysis
At the daily level K, two large cross stars appear in succession, indicating that there is a serious divergence between bulls and bears at this position, and both bulls and bears have insufficient momentum.
The hourly K can draw a channel (the channel is a manifestation of weakness), and the indicator diverges. Bulls should be alert to downward breakthroughs, and bears should be careful of channel reversals. If you really want to make a trade, the stop loss will not be too large around this channel, but it is very easy to be stopped out.
As I said before, after a smooth market, there is a high probability of a disgusting consolidation market. So I personally choose not to force a trade here.
Macroeconomic impact Since the beginning of this year, after the narrative in the circle has dried up and the big pie has become a plaything of Wall Street. The influence of macroeconomic news on the trend of the entire currency circle has gradually increased. It has been proposed many times: the current market has gradually shifted from single trading inflation to trading inflation and economy. Then economic data indicators are particularly important. US unemployment rate in September: previous value 4.2%, expected 4.2%; US non-agricultural employment in September after seasonal adjustment: previous value 14.2, expected 14. If the unemployment rate is higher than expected, the transaction will decline, and it will fall; otherwise, it will rise; if it meets expectations, it will go sideways. The same applies to employment.
Let me tell you my understanding. In China, when the A-share and Hong Kong stocks are in full swing, it would be a very serious behavior if the US Bureau of Statistics announced two pieces of "bad data" that exceeded expectations. Economics and politics, politics and economics. If they cannot serve each other, then it is very improper.
As mentioned earlier, the first downside support is 62,500 and the second downside support is 60,000.
Bitcoin got support at the second support level and currently rebounded to the first support level of 62500; currently 62500 support-resistance conversion, and was tested once on Friday. Whether the main force smashes the market or pulls the market, it usually chooses the time and opportunity; chooses the time with the highest cost performance (least effort, most gain). At present, it seems that there is no volume fluctuation on the weekend, and the small-level indicators are digested, which really responds to the saying "everything is the best arrangement".
On September 30, the day of the decline, it was proposed that "there may be opportunities in the copycat market in the future"; on October 1, it was proposed that "the split market should be split into separate transactions" and on October 4, "switch positions to copycat". This is called taking every step carefully and integrating knowledge and action.
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