As the US election gradually enters its climax, the market is more sensitive to the price fluctuations of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. As market observers expected, the presidential election in November will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, and the confrontation between Trump and Harris in the first debate has triggered a fierce reaction in the market.
Differences between Trump and Harris
There are clear differences between the policy stances of former President Trump and current Vice President Harris on cryptocurrencies. Trump has publicly expressed his support for Bitcoin and promised to build a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. This promise is seen as a major positive by the cryptocurrency market and may attract more investors to the market. He also said that he would push more Bitcoin miners to stay in the United States to ensure that the United States maintains its leading position in Bitcoin mining. The Republican Party has historically been considered to have a more relaxed regulatory attitude towards digital assets, so the market generally believes that Trump's victory will drive up the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
In contrast, Harris and the Biden administration are relatively conservative in their attitudes toward cryptocurrencies, and some are even considered "hostile" by industry insiders. Although Harris himself has not expressed a clear position on cryptocurrencies, the regulatory policies implemented by his Democratic administration are relatively strict, which makes the cryptocurrency industry uneasy about its future policies. Many market participants are worried that if Harris wins, it may increase regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, thereby suppressing the growth of digital assets such as Bitcoin.
The potential impact of the US election on Bitcoin price
1. Trump wins: Bitcoin price is bullish
According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, the Bitcoin market could see a sharp rise if Trump wins. Analysts predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin prices are expected to break new all-time highs and may even reach between $80,000 and $90,000. This is because the market believes that the Republican government's cryptocurrency policy will be more favorable and provide a better regulatory environment, thereby attracting more traditional financial institutions to enter the market.
2. Harris wins: Bitcoin price faces downward pressure
In contrast, analysts generally believe that if Harris wins the election, the price of Bitcoin may decline, and may even fall below the $50,000 support level and test the price range of $30,000 to $40,000. This is mainly because investors are concerned about the regulatory policies of the Democratic government and expect that a stricter regulatory environment may suppress market vitality and cause funds to flow out of the cryptocurrency market.
Debate on the immediate reaction to Bitcoin price
During the latest debate, Bitcoin prices briefly fell. About 30 minutes into the debate, Bitcoin prices fell by more than 1% to below $57,000. This phenomenon was interpreted by some market participants as investors believing that Harris performed well in the debate, making the market uncertain about the future of cryptocurrencies. This immediate reaction also shows the market's high sensitivity to the results of the election.
The impact of the macroeconomic environment
In addition to the policy stances of the candidates, the macroeconomic environment is also an important factor affecting the price of Bitcoin. Regardless of who wins the election, the US fiscal deficit is expected to expand significantly, and expansionary monetary policy may lead to further depreciation of the US dollar. As an asset that hedges against inflation and fiat currency depreciation, Bitcoin benefits from this. The maximum supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million, making it a potential tool for responding to monetary expansion. Therefore, the direction of US fiscal policy in the next few years will have a profound impact on the price of Bitcoin.
in conclusion
Whether Trump or Harris wins the election, the price of Bitcoin will experience fluctuations. If Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin is expected to break through the historical high; if Harris wins, the market may face pressure in the short term. But overall, with the increasing uncertainty of the global economy and the expansion of the US government's fiscal policy, Bitcoin's position as a safe-haven asset will be further consolidated, and in the long run, its price trend still has a large upward space.
The relationship between Bitcoin prices and the US election is full of complexities, and future market performance depends not only on who will be in power in the White House, but also on the overall macroeconomic policies of the United States and the dynamics of the global cryptocurrency market.