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This month, as the Fed meeting approached, market sentiment quietly warmed up, as if a spring breeze was blowing, sweeping away the previous haze. On September 17, BTC was like a wild horse, soaring from below $58,000 to quickly break through $61,000. When the Fed announced the heavy news of a substantial interest rate cut, the cryptocurrency market seemed to have ushered in a sweet rain, and all worries dissipated in an instant. BTC rebounded strongly, with six consecutive positive daily lines and a weekly increase of 7.52%. The price was close to $65,000, showing a strong recovery momentum.
The surge in the price of the coin is like a shot in the arm, effectively responding to all doubts and challenges. ETH is not to be outdone, climbing from a low of $2,150 to $2,600, and FUD sentiment has eased. Especially since the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a three-year low, it has shown amazing resilience and returned to above 0.04, indicating that market confidence has returned. AAVE broke through $180, setting a new high since May 2022, and many altcoins followed closely, adding vitality to the market.
Good news continues to come. US presidential candidate Harris has publicly stated that if elected president, she will help boost AI and cryptocurrency investment. The total market value of the crypto market has once again rebounded to over $2.2 trillion, and the total daily transaction volume of the spot market has recently exceeded $80 billion, more than double the lowest point in June.
In terms of on-chain data, the total market value of stablecoins exceeded US$172.2 billion, a new high since May 2022, with a weekly increase of more than 0.5%. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said, "Institutions are no longer shorting Bitcoin aggressively. In the past five months, the net position of CME futures has fallen by 75%."
The market panic level has finally fallen back to normal neutral levels, and the rebound momentum continues. In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, what other sectors have performed well?
On
Sui has performed extremely strongly recently. After falling below $0.5 in early August this year, it quickly rebounded to around $1. After several weeks of volatility, it soared again from around $0.8 to a high of nearly $1.8, an increase of more than 100%.
This month, Sui has received a lot of good news. The game console launched by Mysten Labs in early September was priced at $600 and sold out quickly, attracting a lot of attention. A week later, Grayscale Trust announced that it was open to qualified investors seeking to invest in Sui, bringing it a new funding channel. On the same day, Binance launched the SUI coin-based perpetual contract with a maximum leverage of 20 times, helping its coin price to continue to rise.
On September 17, Sui co-founder announced that USDC would soon be expanded to the Sui network. The next day, the TVL of the Sui network exceeded $1 billion, setting a new record high.
Its ecological sectors also rose sharply, including SUIP, CETUS, NAVX, etc. Even the Meme coin BLUB rose all the way during this period, and its market value has risen to 45 million US dollars.
Noteworthy projects
Scallop
Scallop is Sui's lending protocol. Benefiting from the increase in SUI, the update of Swap V2 and the reward activities, its TVL has soared to 154 million US dollars. At the same time, its coin price has also risen from 0.15 US dollars in early September to more than 0.4 US dollars, with a historical high of 1.44 US dollars.
CZ Concept
On September 17, He Yi published a long article in response to the anxiety of the cryptocurrency circle about the rumors of listing, showing that the market sentiment was extremely depressed. However, a week later, when the market began to pick up, CZ's release from prison became the focus of the cryptocurrency circle. According to the data of the U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons, CZ will be officially released from prison on September 29, and the news once topped the hot search list.
CZ's post-prison moves and Binance's new project tokens sparked heated discussions in the community. Binance's territory and new projects also saw a wave of price increases.
On September 23, IO in Launchpool rose by 8.8%, ALT soared by 17.48%, AI rose by 15.89%, NTRN rose by 11.75%, and ARKM soared by 22.16%. SEI rose from the recent high of $0.26 to $0.47.
Noteworthy projects
This one
As a stablecoin project in Launchpool, ENA's second quarter airdrop happened to be carried out the day after CZ was released from prison. This effectively hedged the selling pressure under the overall positive trend of the market. In addition, Ethena launched sENA, a liquidity receipt token for locking ENA, which increased the composability and use of its tokens in other projects, which in turn had a positive impact on the price of the coin. The current price of the coin is about $0.33, and the historical high is $1.5.
EDU
Open Campus is a decentralized education platform supported by Binance that aims to solve key challenges facing the education industry. The current price of the coin is $0.69, and the historical high is $1.34. As we all know, CZ announced that he would focus on education after resigning as CEO of Binance. Although it is unclear whether CZ will post education-related tweets after being released from prison, the market hotspot may bring in funds.
HOOK
Hooked Protocol provides product infrastructure for enterprises and users to learn and earn at the same time, and its track is also related to education. The historical high is $4.1 and the current price is $0.49. However, the liquidity of the token is still low.
AI Section
After a period of silence, the AI sector has once again triggered a wave of enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency circle with the recent frequent actions of OpenAI. OpenAI is not only negotiating $7 billion in financing, but also launched an artificial intelligence model o1 with reasoning capabilities, internally codenamed "Strawberry". OpenAI o1 is able to reason about complex tasks and solve problems that are more challenging than previous scientific, coding, and mathematical models. In the test, OpenAI o1 performed similarly to a doctoral student on difficult benchmark tasks such as physics, chemistry, and biology, and also demonstrated excellent abilities in mathematics and coding.
Due to its high valuation ceiling and close proximity to hot spots, the AI track usually performs well when the market rises. ARKM soared from around $1 after breaking through $1.5. NEAR rose for three consecutive days, from $4.5 to $5.46. TAO even achieved a rare 8-day rise, rising from around $280 to a maximum of more than $599.
Noteworthy projects
WLD
Due to the heavy selling pressure every month, WLD's currency price failed to increase significantly. In July this year, the Worldcoin Foundation announced that the WLD tokens allocated to Worldcoin contributor Tools for Humanity will be unlocked in a linear manner starting on July 24, 2024. However, TFH extended the unlocking time for 80% of WLD held by team members and investors from 3 years to 5 years. In addition, Worldcoin announced in April this year that it would launch World Chain within the year. It is now approaching Q4, and major benefits are just around the corner.
Historical data shows that from October last year to the first half of this year, WLD was greatly influenced by Ultraman and OpenAI. Every dynamic of its CEO or company has caused WLD to experience significant fluctuations. Strictly speaking, although WLD belongs to the identity ID track, its AI attributes have been greatly enhanced, making it a hot spot for OpenAI in the currency circle. The current price is $1.88, and the historical high is $11.97.
TIA leads the way in modularization
After TIA was listed on the exchange, it rose rapidly from $2 to more than $20, an increase of more than 10 times. But soon after, affected by the sluggish market, the price fell all the way to around $3.7.
Chris Burniske, a staunch TIA bull, recently boldly suggested buying TIA below $5. He also issued a bullish signal when SOL was below $10 during the last bear market. Chris pointed out that many people who are bearish on TIA fail to understand the following points:
1. CelestiaOrg as an ecosystem is running at full capacity, with diverse and passionate developers actively exploring.
2. “Evil VCs” who are given liquidity are less likely to sell in October as expected because they see the progress of the ecosystem and the vision of the team.
3. Many of TIA's main supporters are not as short-term focused as they are portrayed to be.
4. Buyers who have been on the sidelines due to concerns about unlocking pressure will be encouraged to take action as positive price trends and uncertainty decrease.
TIA will unlock about 175.74 million tokens on October 31st, and many investors are concerned about this huge unlocking. However, the market sentiment is still optimistic, and there is still a month to go. Today, the Celestia Foundation completed a $100 million financing round, led by Bain Capital Crypto, with participation from Syncracy Capital, 1kx, Robot Ventures, Placeholder, etc., bringing the total financing amount of the project to $155 million.
TIA has been rising from its lowest price of $3.7, and on September 23rd, it soared 24.19% in a single day, approaching $7. SAGA started from the recent $1.4 and has been rising for five consecutive trading days, reaching a high of $2.7. DYM has also seen two single-day surges of more than 20% recently, breaking through $2 at one point.
Noteworthy projects
Avail
Avail is a modular public chain project that has received tens of millions of dollars in financing and has a strong investment lineup. After being launched on the mainnet, the airdrop details caused huge controversy and negative comments. The current currency price is US$0.15, the historical high is US$0.246, and the total market value is US$288 million. Compared with TIA, SAGA and DYM, AVAIL's increase is still not significant.
Outlook
At present, gaming and social networking are generally facing confusion and have not seen significant improvement. The emerging Meme currency has also failed to trigger large-scale speculation. At present, a considerable amount of funds have flowed into these areas.
From a macro perspective, with the Fed's rate cut this month, the market generally expects that the rate cut will continue in November and December, and it is expected that the rate cut will be 70 basis points this year, while the published dot plot suggests that the rate cut may be 50 basis points this year. The Fed's continued rate cut will inject liquidity into the crypto market and provide continuous benefits for the market's rise. In addition, after the results of the US presidential election are announced in early November, some hesitant funds may also choose to enter the crypto market.
Historical data shows that October is typically a bullish month for the crypto market. Markets tend to be strong at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, while summer is generally sluggish.
Since its launch, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $17.7 billion. In addition, since September 9, there have been only two days of small outflows, and the rest of the time has been positive inflows, with the largest single-day net inflow reaching $263 million. The overall data shows that the market is optimistic and the confidence of over-the-counter buying funds is relatively firm.
TOKEN 2049 in 2023 marks the dawn of the bull market at the end of the year. Whether TOKEN 2049, which has just ended, will become the bottom of a new round of bull market cycle is worthy of our attention.
