Without considering other structural problems, from a purely technical financial perspective, if we really want to release a large amount of money, we should only have the financial conditions to do so when the interest rate differential between China and the United States is zero. Because when the interest rate differential between China and the United States is negative, that is, when the interest rate in the United States is still higher than that in our country, there will still be a large amount of funds that tend to hold US dollars to earn high interest returns rather than convert them into RMB. So in this case, if you do a large amount of money release, the United States will definitely seize this opportunity and suddenly raise interest rates again, absorbing the funds released again and flowing to the United States.

Once the money is really released, after the asset prices of the real estate market and stock market are pushed up, a large amount of funds that have been untied will take the opportunity to sell, and then continue to choose to go to the United States. Therefore, before the interest rate differential has narrowed to zero, advocating for a large amount of money release is actually advocating for others to do the wedding dress. Although the stimulus of large-scale money release will raise domestic asset prices, due to the fact that the United States is raising interest rates at the same time internationally, the money release will bring greater capital outflow pressure, which will eventually be transmitted to the RMB exchange rate, forming a strong depreciation pressure. In fact, to put it bluntly, it is necessary to strike a balance between the exchange rate and asset prices. If we do a large-scale money release, we will choose to protect assets and give up the exchange rate. However, once the exchange rate is lost, how can we protect the assets?

If we release a large amount of money, the property market will rise again, and the economy may be active in the short term, but the exchange rate may have to depreciate significantly. After the depreciation, the US dollar is equivalent to a disguised appreciation. The prices of imported goods in the United States have fallen sharply, their inflation crisis has been resolved, and our property market bubble has become larger. This is equivalent to the risk being transferred from the United States to us.

The distribution system and the currency issuance system are currently very beneficial to big capital, which is equivalent to leaving them a backdoor in a targeted manner. If this loophole is not blocked, the effect of large-scale money release will definitely be half the effort with twice the results. Even if more money is released, the money will not reach the hands of the resident sector in the end. It may promote economic development in the short term, but it will definitely have a negative impact in the medium and long term. Because it cannot solve any fundamental problems, it will aggravate the current structural contradictions.