The recent market fluctuation is less than 1%. This familiar scene reminds me of the market situation from October 16 to November 15, 2018.

After USDT collapsed, a wave of friends who were short and holding USDT were cut, and then it fluctuated up and down by 20 dollars a day, and many people left the market.

After October 15, 2018, the market fell 68% from the 2W point, and was at the end of the triangle consolidation. In the previous declines, there was a good rebound every time it reached the lower edge of the triangle, so in the end everyone was still looking forward to the rebound, but unfortunately what they waited for was a sharp drop.

Let’s look back at this year’s decline.

The same super invincible violent bull market

The same decline throughout the year

The difference is that the peak of the bull market in 2017 was driven by retail investors, while the bull market in 2021 was driven by institutions, which is what we often call institutional bull market.

As the market develops, we are also growing. After each decline, when we encounter shocks, we come up with a theory called the Wyckoff Trading Method.

In the previous declines, as long as everyone put Wyckoff's shock into the market, they would definitely have good returns, but this is not the so-called "bottom" after all, it can only be regarded as the bottom of a small cycle.

We can see that the rebound after each decline is getting weaker and weaker. Recently, the amplitude has even been less than 1%, and it is said that there will be institutional thunder in January.

Let me first state my opinion. I am still optimistic about the market in Q1 next year, and I have already bought some positions. We must be clear that bottom-fishing is a false proposition. Don't think that you can buy at the absolute bottom. It is most important to take out some money that you can afford to lose and buy at the right price.

Just like the current real estate, how much can the house price fall? 20%? Or 30%, then if the increase is doubled, once you miss it, will the four-bedroom house become a two-bedroom house? I think this is what we need to pay attention to. (The rise and fall of real estate is just a metaphor, not an opinion)

At any time, your position is always extremely important.

 

Regarding the issue of LTC production reduction, I will write a separate article to update it later.

The above content is just personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice