I chatted with a big shot in the circle, and he said that this week:

25% interest rate cut, big drop

50% interest rate cut, big drop

Interest rate hike, crash and circuit breaker

His opinion is that interest rate cut is a recession

My personal opinion

Interest rate cut does not necessarily mean recession.

First of all, we must understand that the Fed raises interest rates to curb inflation and cool down the overheated economy, and cuts interest rates to avoid economic recession, inject funds into the depressed market, and improve the vitality and resilience of the economy.

Due to the lack of experience before the Fed's previous interest rate cut cycles, the interest rate cut started later than now, and the general public lacked confidence in the Fed's ability to control the economy, resulting in a large economic recession before the interest rate cut. At the same time, due to people's lack of understanding of the Fed's ability and insufficient confidence in it, the economic recession and people's panic were further exacerbated after the interest rate cut.

Today's Fed is no longer the Fed of ten or twenty years ago. It has sufficient experience in macroeconomic regulation such as interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts, and people have confidence in it. Coupled with the strong performance of non-agricultural, ICP, and other data in recent months, the Fed directly started to cut interest rates and release water this month, which is just right and may not necessarily cause a major economic recession. #美国经济数据