I just suddenly understood the concept of "flow rate"

Just a while ago, when the price of ordi rose to 30 US dollars, I didn’t cash out.

I think this total value, if I don’t sell it, I will hold it until the next bull market, even if it falls

I can bear it too. As a result, it dropped to $3.

Now this amount of money cannot be considered as bargain-hunting funds at all, but also requires off-market funds.

In other words, my funds for bargain hunting out of thin air were reduced by 200%. I just thought, why was my valuation wrong at that time? i realized

Flow rate, the concept of fast flow!

This wave of brc20 summer reaching 30 US dollars is actually the time when it is the most popular. He neither thought of it as a value investment of 100 US dollars at that time, nor did he say, oh! If it rises here, it can be a valuable investment trading sideways at 20 US dollars and 17 US dollars. It's just that he was a product of fast flow, soaring high, and hitting the highest point of 30 US dollars.

But I just imagined the highest flow rate bids, which are very discrete between air molecules and air molecules, between the highest bid and the second highest bid, and very thin, as solid land. (I thought 15 US dollars was already the bottom line, but when it fell to 3 US dollars, my idea of ​​value investing was falsified. I suddenly realized this, and returned to mana 1 yuan, which fell to 0.1 yuan, and then increased to 420 times 3 years later. At the $6 position, even mana’s value investment idea is not advisable. Even if the high ordi is valuable, it has fallen 10 times)

Therefore, I will basically not consider value investing or long-term investment in the future.

High flow rate or low flow rate > Value investment

This may be a simple thing, but I'll summarize it:

If Ordi or Atom or Dnx surges higher in the future, I will only pay attention to market sentiment and whether there are any signals of market reversal due to large capital inflows and outflows. Because a reversal means that although the flow rate is still very fast, it gradually changes from a chasing sell order to a selling order, and then

I have a rough estimate in my mind that the high point of a digital currency is generally about 10:1 away from its own value. That is to say:

If this currency is rising, for example, ordi reaches a high of 30 US dollars, the value range corresponding to a fast flow rate and a stable flow rate should shrink by 10 times, minus the 0.

So if I basically judge a digital object in the future, I will no longer use, for example,

luna is 130 US dollars, not 13 US dollars!

mana6 dollars, no, at least it’s only worth 0.6 dollars!

Ordi is $30, no, the fundamentals are $3! or

Eth, you see, the price of one of my ICOs in 2018 was 3,000~4,000 RMB, but later it dropped to less than 100 US dollars in 2019. Let’s just say 5 to 7 times. include

The bull and bear situation of Bitcoin is that it was still 9 times in the last bull market, but now it has dropped to only 4 times. One is that I think 312 is still one time away, and it is normal to drop to 7 to 8 times. The other one is that it will not fall, so I will become a chameleon: because the value of Bitcoin may be the most solid among the many currencies in the currency circle, and the most valuable leader falls by 5 times, then all other coins will follow the estimate of falling by 10 times. value.

Then, think about it again: Who would regard 6w9 as a holder of a value investment in the long run of Bitcoin to more than 120,000 US dollars? What is the point of holding it?

Because it is the highest transaction price there, the air in the Himalayas is thin. The thin air means that I cannot step on the next cloud at any time, or I have to fall 20 meters away from the next cloud, and I can only go down after 30 meters. This means not considering the bull market, only considering

The "flow rate" indicator, if I feel something like

Recently, the streaming rate of the Atom Arc protocol has begun to increase, or the streaming rate of Bigtime has begun to increase. (Bigtime cannot be considered, it is too fast, and it dropped after a day. How can I analyze it?) The streaming rate of Atom has increased. We have to look at the emotional side. If many people on Twitter say one day, I am so happy to have earned 10 times or 20 times! Next ordi!

I feel like I will no longer consider value investing at that time, oh oh, it’s really good. I then considered that the flow rate had finally reached a relatively thin place, and the thin place was 10 times different from its true value, so I sold it first, and then when his mood fell back, I bought it as a value investment.

I just understood it today:

Coin circle investment:

First check: Is the flow rate so fast that it is thin?

When it arrives, divide it by 10 to use it as the price of its fundamental value. On sale

Second look: value investing. If after it falls, you think about the logic of mana, the logic of btc, and the logic of dnx, and it really still has value, then buy 50% of what you want to buy.

For example, if EOS and Mana fall, even if you are very optimistic about EOS and buy it, it will still fall again.It means that even the fundamentals of value continue to fall below you.

But at that time, it was obvious that BM’s EOS’s basic skills in shaping the industry were greater than those of the founder of ARI Game Mana. But it's a pity, bm is not good as a human being.

Therefore, I think the idea of ​​value investing is the lowest level. It is similar to your sincerity. It is the last thing you can do to tell every prey in the market that I love you and I will stay with you to the end. Continue with the avatar in the second half >>