Blockchain technology originated from Bitcoin. In the past decade, various types of cryptocurrencies have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, creating a series of stories of getting rich quickly. In the investment community and the general public of various countries, a deep-rooted misconception has gradually formed that cryptocurrencies are the future of global currencies and that they will continue to appreciate. Cryptocurrencies advocate that they will eventually replace legal tender in various countries, forming an international currency that is completely decentralized and anonymous, does not require national sovereignty endorsement, and does not require any real asset linkage. At the same time, in recent years, central banks of various countries and some large international technology companies, such as Facebook, have also introduced the concept of stablecoins and started some small-scale pilots. In addition, the country has recently promoted blockchain technology to the national strategic level, resulting in a significant increase in the attention paid to blockchain, but the society is mixed with various information, and it is not easy for people to understand the relationship between blockchain and cryptocurrencies, nor the difference between stablecoins and cryptocurrencies.
In fact, both stablecoins and virtual currencies are applications based on blockchain technology. Blockchain technology is mainly divided into two categories: public chains and permissioned chains. Public chains have the characteristics of complete decentralization, anonymity and transparency. At present, the main public chain application in the world is virtual currency. Under the current laws and regulations in China, public chain applications cannot be implemented and operated in China because they do not meet regulatory requirements. The vast majority of stablecoins anchored to legal currencies that have been announced so far have adopted a permissioned chain architecture. Permissioned chains are not decentralized, and governments can exercise effective legal and technical supervision over them. For example, countries can hold government hearings on Facebook's stablecoin Libra and formulate corresponding regulatory policies, but they are completely powerless against Bitcoin based on the public chain, and they don't even know who to find to attend the hearing.
This article does not conduct an in-depth technical discussion on stablecoins and virtual currencies, but rather analyzes whether they are currencies and whether they have the characteristics of currencies based on the financial attributes that everyone is familiar with.
Money has existed since the early days of human society. Under the barter trading method, when a common item appears that can be used to facilitate the trading of other goods, the prototype of money gradually takes shape. Roughly speaking, money has gone through two stages: physical currency and credit currency. As the name suggests, physical currency itself has a certain commodity value, such as all coins cast with heavy metals. In the physical currency stage, the state does not have an absolute monopoly on the issuance of currency. In ancient China, the people could mint coins on their own, and as long as the color and weight met the standards, they could be legally circulated in the market. However, with the rapid development of human society, especially the increasing complexity of economic activities, the inconvenience and high cost of physical currency in issuance, circulation, carrying, storage and trading have gradually become a stumbling block to economic development, so credit currency came into being. Credit currency mainly relies on the mandatory legal requirements of national sovereignty to use paper money or electronic currency with a value far lower than the face value of the currency as legal tender. At present, the monetary systems of countries around the world are basically based on credit currency. Credit currency mainly relies on national credit to endorse the difference between its own value and face value.
Virtual currency calls itself "currency", but is it a kind of currency? First of all, virtual currency is definitely not a physical currency, because in a strict sense, virtual currency is just a string of codes and does not have any physical value. Virtual currency advocates its own global decentralization, which also prevents it from being used as a credit currency of any country. Therefore, some people believe that virtual currency is a new form of currency, an upgraded version of the current national sovereign credit currency. We believe that this view is basically nonsense. We will not conduct an in-depth economic discussion here, but return to the origin and use the most basic attributes of currency to judge what virtual currency is. This basic attribute is: when all real currencies change hands, in most cases, they are engaged in a purchase of goods or services (loan relationships are also considered services). And now, 99.999% of all virtual currencies are not traded for goods or services, but the new takeover hoards virtual currencies and sells them after they appreciate in order to achieve the purpose of profit. If there is not even the most basic attribute of currency, then at least it can be said that to date, virtual currency is not a real currency! So what is it? Readers who have some knowledge of finance may have realized that the properties of virtual currency are actually exactly the same as those of stocks, and it is a financial product with investment attributes.
If virtual currency is an investment, then many things will become clear and easy to explain. Investment itself is a matter of opinion, and everyone has different understandings and standards of investment value. Some people invest in stocks, some invest in antiques, some invest in stamps, and even now some people invest in sneakers. But no matter what you invest in, most investment objects, like physical currency, have a certain value in themselves. Sneakers can be worn, stamps can be used to send letters, and stocks are associated with the company's assets, cash flow and future earnings. Virtual currency itself has no value and is not linked to any valuable items. The so-called mining costs have been consumed as expenses and are not associated with the virtual currency itself. Even as an investment, virtual currency is a 100% speculative investment. This is why Buffett has always disapproved of virtual currency, because this purely speculative investment model is completely opposite to the value investment philosophy he follows. Speculative investment itself is a relatively niche investment direction, and its value is maintained by two important factors: one is the confidence of current participants; the other is the strength of attracting new ones. As long as new investors continue to enter, the value of purely speculative investments can be maintained or even increased. Therefore, all issuers of virtual currencies focus their main energy on marketing strategies, trying to promote themselves as currencies, the mainstream of the future, will continue to appreciate, and the latest technology blockchain, etc., so as to attract ordinary people who are not very professional to join the game, and never discuss the actual value of virtual currencies. The specific operations are basically in the same category as commercial behaviors such as deceiving the elderly to buy pillows.
Whether it is Libra issued by Facebook or the stablecoins being studied and piloted by governments of various countries, they are all anchored to the legal credit currencies of various countries and are real tokens. In the future, when stablecoins are universal, no one will buy stablecoins specifically to wait for them to appreciate. If you want to invest in foreign exchange, just buy foreign exchange directly without the need for stablecoins that may involve handling fees. Therefore, the future turnover of stablecoins is basically to buy goods or services. Stablecoins are the real "virtual currencies" with monetary attributes.
Therefore, there is an essential difference between stablecoins and virtual currencies: one is a currency attribute, and the other is an investment attribute. The two are completely different financial products. Although they are based on the same underlying technology, they are not even comparable.
Some people may say that even if virtual currencies are investments now, if they become mainstream in the future and are recognized by people all over the world, they can also replace the current legal tender of various countries and become a truly decentralized global currency. We think this is not completely impossible, but the premise is that humans still need to evolve, productivity needs to develop to an unimaginable height, and the human social structure needs to change to a completely different form. Maybe at that time, the currency itself no longer needs the endorsement of national credit. But at least from now on, in the foreseeable future, the possibility of this speculative investment becoming a global currency is basically zero, and even far less than the possibility of sports shoes becoming a universal currency. #美降息25个基点预期升温 #美国8月核心CPI超预期 #特朗普与哈里斯辩论，特朗普概念币普跌 #比特币挖矿难度创历史新高 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？
