Bull market signal! Bloomberg predicts that "90% of Bitcoin spot ETFs will be approved", and GBTC will be the first to convert! Bitcoin spot ETFs have received more good news this week. In addition to ARK and 21Shares updating their prospectuses, showing positive signals of "back and forth communication" between the issuer and the SEC, the SEC is also not expected to respond to "Grayscale's application to convert GBTC to spot." ETF” appeal. (Preliminary summary: SEC has postponed the review of the current status of all Bitcoin ETF applications. What is the fastest possible approval time?) (Background supplement: Full analysis of Bitcoin spot ETFs: The current status of SEC review, what are the misunderstandings and disputes? Is it really possible? Introducing trillions of funds?)
When will the Bitcoin spot ETF be recognized by the market as a key catalyst for the next bull market rise of BTC? Currently, applications submitted by many traditional financial giants (BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton Fund...) are waiting for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval.
Bloomberg analyst: Bitcoin spot ETF has 90% chance of approval before 1/10
Although at the end of last month (26th) the SEC "for the third time" postponed the application for the Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF of Ark Investment (ARK) and 21Shares, ARK Invest and 21Shares (Invesco Galaxy has also been updated) have recently carried out the ETF prospectus was updated and added at least five pages of new text, which is considered a "positive" sign of approval.
In this regard, two well-known senior ETF analysts at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffar, both believe that this kind of "back-and-forth communication" between the issuer and the SEC usually only occurs when the ETF is about to be approved, so they believe that Bitcoin The spot ETF has a "90%" chance of being approved by Ark's January 10 application deadline.
They further explain:
While this back-and-forth between the SEC and fund sponsors is standard practice for new product offerings, it is a first for a spot Bitcoin ETF application, suggesting the SEC is working to approve Ark’s application.
The SEC is the disclosure regulator that seeks to ensure that key information is properly disclosed, including potential risks, but should not overly consider the pros and cons of an investment.
It is understood that the updated prospectuses of Ark and 21Shares have many small changes, including "how the calculation of net asset value does not comply with GAAP accounting", "how to ensure that the Bitcoin of the ETF will be stored in an "independent" wallet" and Further background and additional risk disclosures…etc.
Further reading: Good sign! ARK updates Bitcoin spot ETF application, Bloomberg analyst: positive sign that it will be approved
Image source: James Seyfffar
Is GBTC the first to convert to spot ETF?
On the other hand, the legal battle between asset management company Grayscale Investments and the SEC over converting its Bitcoin trust fund GBTC into a Bitcoin spot ETF is still ongoing.
Grayscale ushered in a brief victory at the end of August. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit asked the SEC to review its previous decision to reject the application. However, the SEC has 45 days to decide whether to comply with the ruling or ask the Federal Court of Appeals in Washington to review it. Review, or appeal directly to the Supreme Court, and the agency will make a decision by 12:00 pm ET on Friday (13th).
Extended reading: Grayscale wins SEC lawsuit! Is the first Bitcoin spot ETF around the corner?
According to the latest news from Reuters citing people familiar with the matter, the SEC does not plan to appeal the ruling in the case of "Grayscale's application to convert GBTC into a spot ETF." This decision is likely to convert GBTC into the first Bitcoin spot ETF. It also means that the listing of ETFs is closer.
