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If 2022 was the year of Bitcoin bloodbath, then 2023 will be the year of trauma recovery.

In the face of depressed cryptocurrency prices, low trading volumes and a tough economic situation, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, even seeing a second round of recovery in October after a summer slump.

“We’ve had a nice recovery, but we’re only at the beginning of this new cycle,” said Kevin Koh, co-founder and managing partner of investment firm Spartan Group.

2023 is a surprisingly good year for Bitcoin.

Since January 1, the price of Bitcoin, the king of cryptocurrencies, has surged 164% to trade above $40,000. The gains far outstripped those of traditional assets such as gold (up 10%) and the S&P 500 (up 20%).

According to Coingecko data, Bitcoin's share of the entire cryptocurrency market has also increased from 38% to more than 50%. The market value of the entire crypto market has swelled from $871 billion at the end of 2022 to $1.7 trillion, and the price of Ethereum has jumped 95%.

Most of Bitcoin’s gains came late in the year as hopes of a potential U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded fund and looser monetary policy rekindled investors’ appetite.

Trading volumes have also rebounded. Total spot and derivatives trading on centralized exchanges reached $3.61 trillion in November, up from about $2.9 trillion in January, according to CCData.

Meanwhile, stablecoins, cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged to real-world assets such as the U.S. dollar, are also growing. The market value of Tether, the largest stablecoin, has soared to an all-time high of more than $90 billion.

After the collapse of FTX and its founder Bankman-Fried (SBF) in 2022, more crypto giants suffered disastrous defeats in 2023.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws, most notably as part of a multi-billion dollar settlement with regulators. Voyager Digital co-founders were accused of fraud by U.S. regulators. And Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky was arrested in the U.S. in July and pleaded not guilty to criminal charges, including securities fraud.

And then there’s FTX founder Bankman-Fried, a one-time industry icon who was convicted of fraud in November after a whirlwind trial.

There was also good news. A U.S. judge ruled that Ripple Labs did not violate securities laws by selling XRP on public exchanges. XRP has risen 82% this year.

Bitcoin Outlook in 2024

Much of Bitcoin’s 55% fourth-quarter gain can be attributed to bets that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved in the U.S. and draw money from retail and institutional investors.

Asset management giants BlackRock and Fidelity are among 13 companies that have submitted applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Such a fund is expected to attract as much as $3 billion from investors in the first few days of trading and billions more after that.

But not everyone is so optimistic.

JPMorgan expects the cryptocurrency market’s recovery to continue until a spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to be approved in early 2024, but remains skeptical about the level of post-launch success priced into the broader market.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects Bitcoin ETFs to attract less than the 10% of the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency market that some have expected.

The report said that if it is indeed lower than the expected 10%, the cryptocurrency market may reverse its recent gains.

However, to some market observers, Bitcoin's recovery still appears to be in its early stages.

According to data from analytics platform Glassnode, the dollar-denominated net realized profits locked in by Bitcoin investors have reached $324 million per day, which is still an order of magnitude lower than the peak experienced in the late 2021 bull run, when it exceeded $3 billion per day.

Glassnode said this shows that Bitcoin’s current performance is still largely within the range of an early bull market, rather than a late bull market. #布局牛市 #sats #币安合约锦标赛