👉🏻 This year, more and more people have begun to use the U.S. stock market index as a reference tool for $BTC price trends. So, is the positive correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks really that strong?
PumpPump captures the trends of the US stock index (here we use the S&P 500 index, which covers 500 popular stocks and represents about 80% of the total market value of publicly listed companies in the United States) and Bitcoin prices over the past year. The data is accurate to each day and aligned to the timeline.
In this way, we can intuitively compare the correlation between the trends of US stocks and BTC:
💡 Conclusion:
Most of the time, when the US stock index rises, the price of Bitcoin also rises, and vice versa. The overall trend does remain consistent, which also confirms that this bull market is mainly led by the US market.
However, there are often large one-sided market conditions, in which the two trends do not follow each other. For example:
In October 2023, U.S. stocks plummeted for several consecutive weeks, but Bitcoin continued to rise.
In January 2024, Bitcoin spot was approved. After consolidation, Bitcoin soared and broke new highs, while the US stock index rose relatively slowly.
In July 2024, Nvidia's market value surpassed Microsoft, driving a surge in the U.S. technology sector, but Bitcoin fell sharply due to selling pressure from the German government and the impact of the Mt. Gox compensation.
The market is essentially a chaotic system. When trading, you need to integrate information from multiple dimensions. All indicators can only be used as a reference and cannot be blindly followed. Any indicator may turn into a tool for the banker to harvest!
Analysis and future prospects:
Although the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin have a strong correlation in the general trend, investors still need to be vigilant about independent events and external interference factors in the market. As the influence of U.S. stocks and Bitcoin gradually expands to the global market, this correlation may continue to exist, but it may also change due to specific events or policy changes. Therefore, when analyzing the market, in addition to paying attention to these market indicators, investors should also flexibly respond to market changes and adjust their strategies.
