Someone said: "The last time the Fed cut interest rates, the price of a cake fell four times. If you don't believe it, go check it yourself." What do I think?

Finance is a complicated thing. You can't apply it mechanically. If you can't grasp the essence, then listen to the right person.

Simple ignorance can easily make people confident, so it is difficult to surrender. Simple self-confidence can easily make people develop path dependence, so it is difficult to connect to the truth.

The most recent interest rate cut occurred in 2019-2022, accompanied by the epidemic.

The two most recent halvings were in 2016 and 2020. The big bull market started in 2017 and 2021.

Then 2018-2020, 2022-2024 are bears.

Note that the big bull in 2021 is the epidemic and interest rate cuts at the same time.

What problems will everyone find?

That is, the most recent interest rate cut just started when the epidemic started and ended when the epidemic was basically over.

That is to say, 2019-2020 is the overlap of bears and interest rate cuts, and also the overlap of interest rate cuts, epidemics and big bears. The whole plus plus smashing.

The bull market in 21 years is halved, with interest rate cuts and the end of the epidemic overlapping.