Polymarket estimated the probability of Pavel Durov's release from prison in August at 26%

Polymarket platform users estimated the possibility of Telegram messenger creator Pavel Durov's release in August 2024 at 26%. The volume of bets on this position almost reached $84,000.

In the first hours after the forecast concerning Durov's figure appeared, about 50% of bettors believed in his imminent release. However, against the backdrop of new details in the case of the Telegram founder, the situation on the platform began to change.

The description of the position indicates that Durov's transfer to house arrest will also be considered a release. At the same time, his possible transportation to another institution is not a sufficient basis for making a decision on the forecast in favor of the answer "Yes".

Some bettors are confident that the entrepreneur will be released no later than 96 hours after his arrest. This is due to French law. After the expiration of the term, the judge must either release him or bring charges against Durov.