A few days ago, I saw an argument that this round of bull market is the first "mutual non-acceptance" bull market.
(I can't sleep, so I just write a few sentences)
I won't comment on this view, but I will simply say what I want to say.
Although this round of Bitcoin's rise has led to a wave of market enthusiasm, I actually don't want to admit that this is a real bull market.
Why do I have this view? The core is that the real wealth-making effect has not come out. I think the bull market is a game that uses the market to reasonably transfer wealth, then expands the bubble, and finally the latecomers take over. This time, the surge in Bitcoin has led to the rise of the market, and there is a wealth-making effect, but it is not large, only a small range.
The wealth-making effect has not reached the state of bustling, and it has not effectively activated or tempted more people outside the market to enter, so there are not so many people to take over, and the communication effect is a bit worse, so I think the bull market has never really arrived.
In this round, I think it is the passage of Bitcoin ETF and the intervention of traditional financial models that have changed the environment of the crypto market and created a new narrative environment, thus ushering in a wave of funds, and many tokens in this round have actually not outperformed Bitcoin.
The driving force of Bitcoin's price this time is purely provided by American traders. The driving force of Asian and European markets is insufficient. I once said that the bull market may not appear because of the Asian market, but the bull market will lack the Asian market. The momentum of the Asian market in this round is obviously insufficient. Although a lot of funds have flowed in, a lot of funds have been retained and have not been fully utilized.
Moreover, at this stage, everyone is short of money, from the traditional real economy to traditional finance. Whether professional or non-professional, the traditional financial circle in China is cutting each other. It's not that they want to, but there is too little money. If they can't cut leeks, they can only cut peers. In the past, win-win in the circle could also be kind to others and win together.