Polls these days seem particularly favorable to Harris, which makes people feel more and more disappointed. Trump seems to be really going to lose this time. The only good news is that Trump's odds on the prediction platform have increased.

Last weekend, Donald Trump's odds on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket soared from 44% to 48%, making the former president's odds almost the same as his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris.

But other prediction markets have not yet shown Trump's odds rising like Polymarket: Betfair, the second largest prediction market with about $67 million in bets, believes Harris is about 5 percentage points higher than Trump. The betting gap on the PredictIt website is even larger, showing Harris leading Trump by about 10 percentage points. The website has bets of up to $34 million and is one of the only few websites targeting US residents.

Mathematical models also show that Harris continues to lead. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and consultant to Polymarket, has an election prediction model that gives Harris a 53.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Trump's 45.9%, with the latter up 0.7 percentage points in the past two days as his odds on Polymarket have risen by about 5%. According to Silver, the race is "...basically 50-50, but Harris has a slight edge." The Economist predicts Harris will win 272 electoral votes, compared to Trump's 266. #特朗普拜登 #特朗普上台后比特币必定上70000