The just released US July retail data, with a monthly rate of 1%, significantly exceeded expectations and the previous value, and the core retail monthly rate also exceeded expectations.
At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims that week was lower than the previous value and expectations. It is also very clever data. The strong retail data means that the US economy is still very strong, and the slightly lower initial unemployment claims further dispel the concerns about recession.
At least until next month's data, the market should no longer be entangled in whether there is a recession. It is also the baseline judgment of the US economy in 24 years that some indicators may weaken, but it is far from a recession.
Coupled with the inflation data of the previous two days, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September has greatly increased. The fundamentals of the economy are strong, and the pace of interest rate cuts will also ease if inflation goes down.
The limited easing mentioned before in the next one or two years has also become the baseline scenario.