The housing price table of 70 cities in July is out. This is the government statistical data that I pay the most attention to every month. Without further ado, let me just post the table first.
Beijing and Kunming stopped falling, Shanghai rose slightly, and the remaining 67 cities continued to fall. Guangzhou fell 0.9%, Shenzhen fell 1.2%, and the decline rate was not low. At this time, it can be seen that although they are called the four first-tier cities, there is still an invisible dividing line between Beijing and Shanghai and Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Second-tier cities fell 0.6% month-on-month as a whole, and third-tier cities fell 0.7% as a whole. An obvious rule is that the lower the level of the city, the less it can withstand a decline, which has been verified in the United States and Japan.
Xiamen and Wuhan are far ahead in the decline list. In the first seven months of this year, Xiamen fell 13.2% and Wuhan fell 13.4%. In July, the two fell by 1.8% and 1.6% respectively.
Some readers have previously said that a month-on-month drop of 1.5% is not considered a drop. I don't know whether it is because they have a poor understanding of numbers or they are too anxious to hold on to their money and hope for a drop. A 1% drop in housing prices in a month is already very scary. In many cities, it is equivalent to 2-4 months' income for the working class, plus the cost of mortgage interest rates. Basically, if the housing prices drop for one year, office workers will have worked for five years in vain.
The drop in housing prices will obviously affect ordinary people's sense of security in their family finances. Without a sense of security, they will reduce consumption and investment and increase savings. This is also the root cause of various social phenomena today.
Unfortunately, except for Beijing and Shanghai (which have stopped falling for two consecutive months), the data for other cities this month show no signs of stabilizing housing prices. It is recommended to continue to wait and see.
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1. After Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its holdings of Apple by nearly half, the next move has been attracting much attention. Today, it was disclosed that Berkshire Hathaway has built a position in two stocks, one is Ulta Beauty, a beauty company, which it bought for more than 200 million, and the other is Heike Aviation, which it bought for more than 100 million. After the news came out, the pre-market trading of these two stocks rose by nearly 10%. Many media began to analyze the reasons why Buffett is optimistic about these two companies, but I don't think it is necessary to over-interpret them. Selling Apple is more than 80 billion, and buying these two companies together is only 400 million, which is obviously not a substitute for each other. Berkshire Hathaway's investment decision-making team has six or seven people. The investment scale of these two companies is small, and it can be decided by other fund managers below, not necessarily by Buffett's own taste.
2. The concept of AI glasses continues to be popular, and it rose another 4.6% today, becoming the most active pool of short-term funds in recent times. The current leader of this sector is Doctor Glasses, a company that does traditional glasses business. They also issued a risk warning tonight, saying that although there are smart glasses lens fitting services, the revenue share is extremely low and will not affect the company's performance. This is actually a disclaimer of listed companies, which means don't speculate blindly. If it collapses later, don't blame the listed company. In fact, this round of AI glasses craze came from abroad. Domestic listed companies do not have any heavyweight products that can be shown off. There is really nothing to speculate. They can only speculate on stocks with glasses in their names. As for whether its performance contains a lot of AI, it doesn’t matter. After all, A-shares are a market where dragons and phoenixes can be speculated.
3. Yesterday, we mentioned that the leader picked up food and some bad guys maliciously turned the table. Today, there are two more market rumors. One is to cancel the tax exemption system for bond funds, and the other is to limit the proportion of bank institutions' investment in public funds to no more than 2.5% warning line, and joint-stock banks cannot exceed 5%. Influenced by these two pieces of news, bonds collectively pulled back again today.
I think that housing prices continue to be weak, and the current mortgage interest rate of 3%+ has a need to fall further. It will be a struggle to strongly block bond bulls at this position. Bond bulls continue to rush in, not because there are so many bad guys shorting China, but because in the withered financial market in the past few years, only those who buy bonds make money.
4. Alibaba released its latest financial report. I copied it directly after seeing a picture. The person who made the picture should be an overseas habit. Red means falling and green means rising. Like Tencent, Alibaba’s revenue was lower than expected, but its profit was higher than expected, which shows that the cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taken by Internet companies in the past two years have been effective. When Alibaba was doing well before, it attacked on many fronts and wanted to do everything and invest in everything. Later, after being beaten, it began to shrink across the board. It sold all the foreign investments that could be sold, and also shrunk the unprofitable businesses. I think Alibaba’s market value is currently underestimated, but the problem is that Alibaba’s main business trend is not good. It has been defeated by Pinduoduo and Douyin, and its payment business has been significantly left behind by WeChat. Therefore, the underestimated market value may also be the market’s early pricing of a pessimistic future. The good news is that many international capitals have bought Alibaba’s bottom this year, but it has not risen much, and no one has made any money.
5. Marriage registration no longer requires a household registration book, and the geographical restrictions have been removed. In the future, couples can register for marriage in various parts of China with just their ID cards. Have you noticed that the trend of policy changes in recent years is to lower the threshold for marriage as much as possible and increase the barriers to divorce? The authorities may hope to increase the proportion of young people getting married through such operations, thereby increasing the fertility rate. But I analyzed this kind of problem in my article a few nights ago. I think the root cause is that the overly rich single entertainment life in modern society has impacted young people's interest in dating. Fewer people are in love, and naturally fewer people are getting married.
6. The latest number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States is lower than expected, and market sentiment has begun to turn hawkish again. It is now predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by less than 100 basis points this year.
That's all. A-shares rebounded a little today, mainly because the northbound foreign capital channel bought 12.2 billion, which is a decisive buying volume for the currently sluggish A-shares. However, the fluctuation of one or two days does not mean anything. Before, it also bought nearly 20 billion a day, and then fell for half a month. It is said that there are many long-term positives in a bear market, not to mention... today's is not a long positive.
Today my brother-in-law and his family came to Taizhou to play. I accompanied them to Shenxianju. The weather was very good. It was not hot on the mountain, but the sun was a little strong, which caused sunburn on my arms. I took some photos for you to see.
Shenxianju Landmark: Sitting Guanyin
The glass plank bridge is so scary that I dare not look down, but if I don't look down, I feel that I have missed out on buying the ticket.
Ruyi Bridge is very popular on TikTok
Can you believe there is a marriage registry on the top of a mountain? I wonder who came up with this idea.
The most amazing scenic spot in Taizhou, a 5A attraction, it is definitely worth visiting