After the Fed's interest rate meeting last week, I personally gave a possible maximum interest rate cap of 6%, which means that if there are not two rate hikes in 2023, there will be one rate hike in 2023 and another rate hike in 2024. Of course, this interest rate is also calculated from the dot plot, and there are still some possibilities. The Fed raised the interest rate by 25 basis points again in December and raised the dot plot to 6%, but there is a possibility that the last 25 will not be raised, just as a sword of Damocles hanging over the market. But today I saw the news that the CEO of JPMorgan Chase publicly stated that the world may not be ready for the worst case scenario of the Fed's benchmark interest rate rising to 7% and stagflation.
In Chinese, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie believes that the Fed may not stop at 6% interest rates, and may even raise it to 7%, and the increase from 5% to 7% will cause more damage to the market than 3% to 5%. At the same time, he also said that if trading volume decreases and interest rates rise, it will have a significant impact on American companies and consumers, and if interest rates are raised to 7%, the probability that the US economy will fall into recession in the next 12 months will not be less than 60%, which is still a relatively conservative figure. Just one hour after Jamie's speech, Kashkari, a Fed voter who has voting rights in 2023, also spoke and expected another rate hike this year. Although this data is within our expectations, it still shows the possibility of a strong Fed.
In last week's vote, Kashkari was one of 12 policymakers who expected another rate hike this year. For the Fed, data will still be used as a reference standard. At present, Powell has given that inflation (core PCE) will be reduced to 3.3% in 2023. In other words, if this goal can be predicted in the November or December interest rate meeting, then there is a possibility that there will be no rate hike in 2023. However, if the December interest rate meeting cannot or does not see that core inflation can achieve the expected target of 3.3%, then the possibility of another rate hike is still quite high. As for whether it will be higher than 6%, it will basically not happen in 2023.
Yesterday we explained in detail the government shutdown. Today I saw a rumor from Bloomberg that the two parties will reach a temporary agreement of four to six weeks to keep the government from shutting down. The Senate vote should be on Tuesday morning, US time, which is tonight or tomorrow morning, Beijing time. If no settlement can be reached this time, the possibility of the US government shutting down next week will become greater and greater. Of course, for the risk market that many friends are concerned about, the shutdown will not have much impact on the market. If it is only shut down for one or two weeks, it will not have much impact on the judgment of the Federal Reserve. But if it exceeds two weeks, the probability of not raising interest rates in November will be greater. #美联储是否加息？ $BTC
