First, regarding gap filling, it is true that in the financial market, whether it is the cryptocurrency circle or other markets, especially in the traditional stock market, as long as there is a gap, there is a high probability that it will be filled. This has actually formed a market consensus, so professional investors will also operate based on the gap. For example, if there is a gap above the gap opening, a large number of professional investors will buy in, so the market will slowly rebound, and then sell when the gap is filled. Vice versa, so this is the internal logic of gap filling, which is not only metaphysical, but also derived from the game of professional funds.
Second, the view on the current market. Let's look at the short-term first. The current strong rebound has reached 62745, close to the 63000 area. The 63000 position is the most important watershed of the market strength and weakness, and it can also be said to be the turning point of the trend. This is very clear from the previous trend. In other words, if it can effectively break through and stabilize 63000, then the market will most likely resume a strong upward trend. So today, it has reached this area and is currently facing a strong pressure level. Also pay attention to Figures 1 and 2. The black trend line I drew is a point that few people in the market have noticed. This is an obvious bull market rising trend line since the bull market started in October last year, and it has been relying on prices to rise. There were 2 false breaks during the period, and then they were recovered and continued to rise. At present, it has broken the trend line again, and the magnitude of this break is large. At present, it is just close to the trend line. Therefore, based on the above two aspects, the short-term market is suppressed by the overlap of 63,000 and the trend line. It is not easy to break through here directly. In the short term, we will see a wave of retracement. It is normal to retrace to 55,000-58,000.
Third, let's talk about the medium and long-term trend. Although there is a short-term correction, I don't think it will fall much. 49,000 is likely to be the lowest point of this correction. The most important reason is market sentiment. On August 5, there was a huge drop, which has knocked out a lot of long leverage. The market was cleared and the stop loss orders of the spot were knocked out. In other words, the market killed the bloody chips, and the whales obviously took the goods. The whole market was extremely panicked. The FGI fear and greed index in Figure 3 fell to 17, which is even the bottom level of the bear market, and it was extremely fearful. Therefore, the medium- and long-term super bottom has appeared, and it is highly likely that it will not fall below 49,000 in the future. So in general, in the short term, it will step back, but it will not fall below 50,000, and then it will fluctuate and consolidate for a period of time before going up. The signal to fully confirm the upward trend is to break through and stabilize 63,000. There is also an expectation of interest rate cuts next month. At present, it is just the ultimate shock before the second half of the bull market starts. Next month, it is highly likely to start to explode and welcome the acceleration of the second half of the bull market.
