As the acute phase of market volatility ends, we tend to build long-term bullish positions to counter the rate cut cycle. We prefer trades with a 3-6 month time horizon to prevent getting cut during higher volatility.

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Just recently, the three gaps of CME $BTC have all been filled. The first two are gaps caused by the decline, and the third is the gap at the opening this morning. Although gap filling is metaphysical, according to my previous statistics, the probability of gap filling within three weeks is the highest.

Since 2020, I have personally counted 25 daily gaps, of which 23 have been filled, and only 11 of these 23 were filled within a week, 3 were filled within two weeks, and 4 were filled within three weeks. It is very difficult to count those that have been filled after more than three weeks.

So if we look at the proportions, there is a 47.82% chance that the gap will be filled within a week, a 60.86% chance that it will be filled within two weeks, and a 78.26% chance that it will be filled within three weeks. In addition, the total gap filling rate in these four years reached 92%.

Filling the gap is indeed a metaphysics, but this metaphysics must be taken seriously.