Although I wrote one day less, it didn’t delay anything, because I wasted another uneventful day on A-shares.
The trading volume of 590 billion fell back into the gutter, the market median was -0.22%, and the net selling of northbound funds was 2.1 billion. All the data were very typical, and the feeling of the previous period was back. In fact, the global environment is quite good today, and more than 95% of the market indexes are rising, but this did not prevent the A-shares from habitually falling at the end of the trading day.
Despite the overall sluggish market, there are some bright spots in some conceptual sectors, such as commercial aerospace, education and training, optical fiber, and smart grid.
Commercial aerospace is because the Qianfan constellation (the Chinese version of Starlink) launched the first batch of 18 satellites into the sky. The operator behind this project is a technology company controlled by Shanghai state-owned assets. It raised 6.7 billion in the A round. Although Starlink already has a huge first-mover advantage in this field, there are often political games and military demands behind satellite communications, so it is also a logical narrative for us to develop domestic products. If commercial aerospace continues to rise, the unmanned vehicles in front should be withdrawn.
Education and training industry... The State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting High-quality Development of Service Consumption" the day before yesterday, which mentioned stimulating the vitality of education and training consumption. The industry generally interprets it as a way to boost consumption and employment, and the education and training industry needs to be redeveloped. Offcn Education was on the verge of delisting, but it has had five consecutive daily limits in the past few days. I was very optimistic about this industry in the past few years. At that time, I bought Good Future in the US stock market. As a result, it suffered a heavy blow in the summer of 2021, and then I cut my losses in half. No matter how this industry develops in the future, I will not go back. A piece of paper may bring a heavy blow to the main business, and the risk of uncertainty is too great.
Optical fiber is a sector that benefits from the hardware demand for artificial intelligence, and the rise in smart grids comes as the government has introduced a three-year grid plan aimed at promoting system construction.
The common feature of these sectors is that the overall market cap is not large. As long as there is news stimulation or a story to tell, it can gather those professional stock investors who have to make a living in a bear market and speculate on a few monster stocks on a small scale. This is only suitable for short-term speculators who enter and exit quickly, and there is no large-scale money-making effect. After all, the total market transaction volume is less than 600 billion. Without new leeks, the sickle will be very cruel.
……
1. Today, a big event happened in the real estate industry. A plot of land in Xuhui District, Shanghai was sold to Greentown at a floor price of 131,000 yuan. This is the most expensive land in China after 9 years. However, this kind of top-tier and high-priced plot of land cannot reflect the overall situation of China's real estate market. Vanke's sales in July fell by 13% year-on-year and 24% month-on-month. Sunac's sales in July fell by 72% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month. Poly Development's sales in July fell by 18% year-on-year and 39% month-on-month.
In a few days we will be able to see the housing price statistics of 70 cities. I guess based on my feeling there will not be a significant rebound.
2. In order to ease market anxiety, the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan stated that it would not raise interest rates when the market is unstable, which promoted the continued rebound of the Nikkei index today. The Korean and Taiwanese stocks also performed strongly today. I took a look at the US stock market tonight. The Nasdaq +1.8%. The outside world has gradually filled the big hole dug on Monday. With such a big commotion, I hope I am the only one who is most serious about the decline. It's so annoying.
3. The latest forecast of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year by foreign institutions (updated on August 6). Most predict that the first rate cut will be on September 25, and only Japan's Mizuho insists that there will be no rate cut before 2025. As for the extent of the cut, the conservative view is that it will be a 50 basis point cut in 2024, and the more radical view is 125 basis points (50+50+25, 3 cuts).
4. The People's Bank of China has stopped buying gold for the third consecutive month. The price of gold this year is around 2,500. Many people took advantage of the previous uptrend, and those who bought after that wave will no longer have the opportunity to make systematic profits.
5. The authorities have begun to strictly investigate institutions that engage in illegal bond speculation. Readers who hold bond funds only need to have a general understanding of this and will not go into details.
That's all. During the past two days of watching the Olympics, one thing shocked my three views. The cause of the incident was the Olympic women's table tennis singles final, which was between two Chinese players. Logically, the gold medal would be Chinese no matter who won or lost. But in fact, the atmosphere of this game was strange. Outside the court, a large number of Sun Yingsha's fans showed strong aggression towards another player, Chen Meng.
The result of the game was that Chen Meng defeated Sun Yingsha again in the Olympic final after the 2021 Tokyo final. This made Sun Yingsha's supporters collectively break down their defenses. Many people spoke ill of her on social media. Some people even fabricated pornographic rumors about Chen Meng and Marin and have been criminally detained by the Beijing Public Security Bureau.
I always thought that these athletes only showed up at the Olympics and were usually low-key like half-invisible people. I didn't expect that table tennis players could have so many die-hard fans like idol artists. Many of them are even willing to chase stars across provinces and grab tickets to watch Sun Yingsha's games. This sounds very abstract, doesn't it?
In fact, it's not just Sun Yingsha. Another girl who appears on TV a lot, Quan Hongchan, is also gradually showing this trend. It is said that her fans are also hostile or aggressive towards another contestant, Chen something, who may threaten Quan Hongchan. Thinking back to the previous Dongfang selection incident, the fierce attitude of many netizens who supported Dong Yuhui, I suddenly feel that this world is a bit strange