I have written two articles before: How to find 100x projects? How to screen 100x projects?

In fact, we find that these are all "technical" contents. If we want to get a higher winning rate when looking for projects in the cryptocurrency circle, we should actually look at it from a higher perspective.

Let’s talk about this topic today.

1. About value investing

One of the most common ideas we talk about when investing is "value investing"

But in the cryptocurrency circle, are projects that increase dozens or even hundreds of times all value investments?

First, let’s look at the definition of value investing:

Value investing is buying things whose market price is below their "intrinsic value" and holding them for the long term to earn returns from undervalued assets.

Let’s look at “intrinsic value”: the investment product has a real basic value.

Before the emergence of Defi, how many crypto projects had actual application value? Most projects started issuing tokens as soon as they had a concept, and the specific implementation was unknown.

After the emergence of Defi, the project began to have functions such as exchange, lending, and prediction, and had practical application value.

But most “projects” and “tokens” are not necessarily positively correlated.
Tokens have no power, and holding them does not necessarily entitle you to a share of the project's revenue dividends. The so-called governance authority is a game for big players, and small retail investors can basically ignore it.

Of course, some projects are empowering, such as projects with launchpad functions. After holding tokens as collateral, you have the quota rights to participate in the launchpad.

In general, at the current stage, when buying and selling cryptocurrencies, projects that increase by dozens or even hundreds of times are sometimes not necessarily value investments.

2. Dancing with Zhuang


Here I have a point:

The kind of project where someone sets up a scheme, dances with the dealer, embraces the bubble, and then withdraws in time.

To be frank, many of these projects have been deliberately promoted to increase in value. This may be a special way of playing encrypted digital currency at the current stage.

First, let me ask a question: What is the criteria for evaluating the quality of a coin?

Is the product easy to use? Is the product used by many people? Is the product track promising?

Actually, none of them.

I have seen too many products that are well made but the price of the coins has always been mediocre, such as Uni; I have also seen products that are average or even a bit rubbish, but the price of the coins is far higher, such as meme coin.

In fact, the rise and fall of currency prices is only related to "buying and selling". When the quantity is constant, if the buying quantity is greater than the selling quantity, the currency price will rise, otherwise it will fall.

In my opinion: this matter ultimately comes down to whether there is someone to push it forward and whether they have the ability to push it forward, that is, to "set up the game".

The investment here is actually a transfer of value. If A makes money, it must be the money that B lost.

“Earn” is different from “earn”

Earning is obtained by providing products, services, and labor in exchange for compensation.

And making money is a process of value transfer.

Therefore, the key point of finding a project is to see: Do you have the willingness to do it? Do you have the ability to do it?

If there is: we bravely participate in it, dance with the village, embrace the bubble, and then retreat in time.

3. How to find

Are you willing to set up a bureau?

First of all, we need to be clear about who might be doing this?

It can be the project party itself, a large financial consortium, or cooperation between the project party and the financial party.

For example, different project parties have different goals.

  • Some project parties aim to obtain financing. They may organize various activities to PUA black slaves to brush their data, or bribe investment institutions’ investment experience to obtain project financing. After obtaining the financing, they start to live a carefree life, and the final interaction of the project will be unfinished.

  • The goal of some project parties is to issue coins, raise some funds, do a decent job on the project, issue coins, go public, and then they either front-end the coins or unlock them directly and keep selling them. They don’t care what happens to you in the later stages, such as the top-level project ICP.

  • Of course, there are also some project parties with bigger goals. They work hard to expand the project, increase the price of tokens, and finally sell them slowly after the team’s chips are unlocked.

This is actually an examination of the project parties. Those with backgrounds and successful entrepreneurial cases have a bigger picture.

Do you have the ability to set up a bureau?

There are still many project parties willing to set up a game, after all, they can earn more, but this is a difficult task and not all project parties can do it, because there are many conditions that need to be met to make it happen.

For example: funds, chips, products, team and marketing.

Explain it

(1) Funding:

A project development needs funds, and it takes funds to make a market manipulation. So I put funds first. To make a market manipulation, you need money to buy coins. If you don’t have funds, what can you use to make a market manipulation? Pepe spent about 30 million to 50 million to make a market manipulation in the early stage.

How can I check if a project has funding?

1) Check whether the project has financing, the amount of financing, and whether it is paid in installments or in one lump sum. Generally, projects with financing are more likely to succeed. Because many investments are paid in installments, San Arrows and FTX led the investment in many projects in the last round. Since they collapsed, many projects have encountered obstacles in their subsequent development.

2) Income and expenditure, study the team's expenses: how many people are there, what is the salary structure, (VCs generally have data on this information, and we retail investors can also get a rough idea by looking at recruitment information on recruitment platforms) roughly calculate how much the monthly expenses are, what are the sources of income for the team, and how much income can be earned in a month (this information can be obtained through information platforms or on-chain data). Based on the revenue situation, we can see how many months the financing can support, and can it last until the end of the project?


(2) Chips:

Chips represent control rights. The more concentrated the chips are, the easier it is to pull up a project. However, the chips cannot all be in the hands of the project party. Everyone knows that if the coins are in the hands of the project party, they will definitely not enter the circle. Therefore, the economic model of the token is worth studying.

The chips may change hands many times, such as making Fud, washing the market, etc. Anyway, the game makers have no chips in their hands, so it is impossible for them to pull the market. Will they pull the market so that you can sell? Dydx, according to the path unlocked in his economic model, the team now has no chips in their hands, will he pull it?

Of course, there is a special case here. The price may be pulled up three to five times in the early stage. This is caused by the market makers, which is possible.

The circulating market value can be estimated based on the circulation of tokens, and the future circulation volume can be estimated based on the token unlocking process. In this way, we can actually refer to the circulating market value of the same track project in the last bull market to estimate the bull market price of the token and predict our own income.

For example, if the bull market of our two new public chains is in 2025,

The total circulation volume of sei in 2025 is between 4 billion and 5 billion. Based on the current price of 0.13, the circulation market value is between 500 million and 600 million.

The total circulation volume of sui in 2025 is between 3 billion and 3.7 billion. Based on the current price of 0.48, the circulation market value is 1.4 to 1.8 billion.

SOL, in 2021, there will be about 400 million SOL in circulation, the highest price will be 248 dollars, and the highest market value will be 100 billion.

FTM, with a circulation of approximately 2.8 billion in 2021, a maximum of $3.1, and a market value of 8.6 billion.


(3) Products:
It’s OK as long as the product is acceptable. Of course, a good product narrative can attract more consensus-holders to get on board and create a tap water.

(4) Team and Marketing:
Although the project product is just average, the team's marketing ability must be strong, which means the project party's ability to stir up trouble, tell stories, and attract more consensus participants through various marketing activities. Of course, pulling the price is the best marketing method. Here I want to give an example of RACA, which is rumored to be a project started by Musk's mother. Their marketing ability is excellent. From the beginning of grabbing mother boxes, meta beasts, and gold farming, the wealth effect brought step by step has successfully attracted countless people to come in.


To judge whether the project party has the ability to do this well, it is necessary to conduct argumentation from many aspects, and a lot of information needs to be deeply explored. Experienced project parties will consciously conceal this information.

IV. Conclusion

When you find a project that meets the above characteristics, and someone is gaming this coin, and these people have the ability to do so, you must bravely participate in it, enjoy the bubble, and then withdraw in time.

If you are interested in Web3 and have good projects to share, you can add me and we can communicate together.

Welcome to follow.