Air Force:
1. The average daily transaction volume of SOL users is too high, and there are too many bot rug scams
Solana has over 1.3 million daily active users (DAU), while Ethereum has around 400,000. The average number of transactions per user is about 2.92, while the average number of transactions per user per day on SOL is as high as 217. There is no doubt that a large number of on-chain transactions are generated by bots, especially multiple rug meme projects.

The only reason these scams exist is because they are profitable. Therefore, users are losing funds at least equal to the fees + transaction costs incurred, which is millions of dollars per day. Once deploying these scams becomes unprofitable (when actual users get tired of losing money), it is expected that the number of transactions and fee income on Solana will decline.

2. A large number of high slippage transactions in meme make MEV pumping more serious
The vast majority of tokens traded are Memecoin, which is extremely volatile and has low liquidity, and traders often set trading slippage to >10%. Nearly 60% of block space profits come from MEV, and once Memecoin starts to cool, MEV fee income will decline accordingly.

3. Suspicious Fluctuations in Stablecoin TVL
Stablecoin trading volume on Solana suddenly dropped after the CFTC announced an investigation into Jump.

4. Other factors
Poor network stability;
The threshold for Rust development is high;
The likelihood of an ETF passing is low;
Issuance is up to 67,000 SOL/day ($12.4 million);
There are still 41 million SOL ($7.6 billion) locked in FTX’s assets, of which 7.5 million ($1.4 billion) will unlock in March 2025, and an additional 609,000 ($113 million) will unlock each month until 2028. These SOL tokens can be purchased for approximately $64 each.

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Many military refute the above views one by one:
1. It doesn’t matter whether the user transaction volume on Solana is native or not
Although there are a lot of robot activities on Sol, this is only because people have different purposes. Robots still pay gas fees, and the same is true on other chains. When Ethereum NFT was booming, there were also a lot of rugs.

2. MEV Problem
MEV is not just a sandwich attack, it is also used for atomic arbitrage and market making. The problem of mev is nothing compared to the huge increase in memecoin speculation. Even if the mev fee is removed, the pure transaction fee of Solana yesterday exceeded that of Ethereum.

3. For meme casino:
Meme is just one application in the Solana ecosystem. The Sol ecosystem also includes blinks, depin, payment, zk, etc.

4. If sol does have some shortcomings:
SWQOS is a bad mechanism, there is a delay in sending transactions, the data infrastructure is not very good, stablecoin dominance is not as high as it should be, more geographical diversity is needed in Latin America and Africa, the RPC specification is too bloated, the founder Raj is not bald yet (because the author Mert became bald after starting Solana), etc.
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Personal closing:
1. There is no doubt that meme is a highlight of this bull market, especially the SOL ecosystem, but the new high-performance public chain can also provide the infrastructure for high-frequency trading. A few meme pulls are enough to produce vampire attacks. Coupled with the pump and derivatives, the mass production of conspiracy groups, the clamp attacks of MEV, etc., losses have become the norm, and sustainability does need to be considered.

2. Sol’s chip distribution is not decentralized enough, and institutions have made a lot of money from their holdings. This is an irrefutable fact and risk;

3. Whether the token price will rise or not is not only determined by its own value, but also greatly influenced by the macro environment. Although I personally think that the probability of this round of SOL ETF passing is not high, the price of the token may still have room to rise due to the interest rate cut and liquidity release.