A rare big bullish candle, the market has recovered a lot today.
The two markets traded 900 billion yuan, and the market median rose 3.18%. The most outrageous thing was that the northbound channel had a net purchase of 19.5 billion yuan today. This data ranks among the top ten in the history of single-day net inflows. Just yesterday, it was said that the annual cumulative amount was about to fall into negative numbers, but today a large amount of money was added. It is not known whether this 19.5 billion yuan is real foreign capital or overseas officers and soldiers returning to provide assistance.
I can't find any special major positive news today from reliable information sources. The capital market is sometimes so weird. It may suddenly collapse for no reason or suddenly pull up a big wave. But I can't say I'm very optimistic, because even if the market rises today, the overall market will return to the level of last Monday.
It means that today we have filled the hole we dug in the past week and a half.
Of course, there is another major difference, which is the different mentality of the market. This round of decline started after the rebound peaked in mid-May, and continued to fall for nearly 3 months, with a retreat of 2 and a gain of 1, and only a small rebound at most. This allowed the shorts to continue to receive positive feedback and smash the market recklessly. Today is the first time in three months that they have been punished with enough pain.
With such a positive line today, we need to weigh the pros and cons when we want to sell short. At the same time, some of the funds that have been watching may also be unable to resist buying at the bottom, or strategically start to build positions. Of course, these are my personal optimistic expectations. I didn't buy, and I don't have any plans to increase my position in the near future.
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1. The biggest gainer today is the securities sector, which is one of the reasons for boosting market confidence. Securities have always been a leading indicator of the market. The rise of this sector indicates that some funds have strong confidence in this bottoming out and rebound. In addition, there are rumors in the market that CICC and Galaxy may merge. This is also a traditional old program, because there is no other good news to speculate in the securities sector, and the only speculation is merger. Every time in order to cooperate with the market, they will choose a pair of mandarin ducks. This time, they may be drawn by the lottery for both of them, which is aggrieved for a while.
As for the specific time to buy, both CICC and Galaxy Securities are too big, so the rise will definitely be slow. The ones at the top are either small-cap brokerages or relatively new brokerages that went public late and have a large number of shares not yet in circulation.
2. Today, there is a piece of news that will have an important impact on the future development of Chinese society. The Ministry of Finance announced that it is considering reforming the consumption tax. There are two directions for the reform. One is to change the collection from the production link to the consumption link. In layman's terms, it used to be collected from manufacturers, but now it will be collected from end consumers, and the tax will be added to the retail price. The other change is to transfer the ownership of the consumption tax from the central government to the local governments, which can supplement the local government's revenue and stimulate local governments to improve the consumption environment.
As long as the overall tax burden is not increased and only the distribution within the government is adjusted, I think this is a positive attempt. Now that land is not easy to sell and local governments are short of money, civil servants cannot pay salaries and bonuses, so they will use their power to get some "non-tax revenue", which will seriously threaten
Specifically for A-shares, the consumption tax collection link has been moved back, and the impact on some high-priced commodities is more obvious. For example, more taxes are collected on liquor and wine, while less taxes are collected on low-priced and high-volume products such as beer.
3. Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed by an Israeli airstrike in the Iranian capital. This news really makes people's scalps numb. There is really no law in the Middle East. Israel can actually behead people in the Iranian capital by airstrike. It is understandable that there is accurate intelligence, but does it completely ignore Iran's sovereignty? It was said before that the US proposed a peaceful ceasefire between the two sides. Now, Biden has directly withdrawn from the election. Maybe both sides have tacitly accepted that the previous plan is invalid. But if Trump comes to power and withdraws military aid, will Israel continue to fight hard?
What surprised me a little was that after the news came out today, shipping prices did not react much and did not rebound.
4. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates by 15 basis points, raising the interest rate to the range of 0.15-0.25%. The purpose should be to maintain the exchange rate. The yen jumped 1.7% due to this news. Throughout July, the yen was the best performing currency in the world. The further recovery of the Japanese economy will make the Japanese government determined to promote debt reduction.
5. The "Pilot Work Plan for Optimizing the Review and Approval of Clinical Trials of Innovative Drugs" was reviewed and approved. The specific content is too long to be posted here. In summary, its main function is to help accelerate the R&D and market launch of innovative drugs, enhance the competitiveness and innovation capabilities of my country's pharmaceutical industry, and is a positive for the innovative drug sector.
6. Today, something caused a heated discussion in the industry. The Ministry of Commerce’s kindergarten was recruiting a financial manager. Among the many applicants, a candidate named Han XX stood out. According to the public information, he previously worked at Jianxin Fund. A finance graduate majoring in accounting took the initiative to switch from a public fund to a kindergarten under the Ministry of Commerce, which made his colleagues speechless.
That's all. I watched the basketball game last night and Kawamura Nagaki of the Japanese team was really amazing. A small guy of 172cm, he scored 29 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists against the powerful host. If it wasn't for the controversial whistle of the last 3+1, the French team would have been finished. The previous World Cup reversal against Finland was also dominated by Kawamura Nagaki's super godly state. China is now obsessed with selecting tall players. Small guys of 172cm are eliminated in the preliminary selection. Yao Ming and Yi Jianlian have used up our luck. As a result, we can neither select their successors nor our own Kawamura Nagaki.
