The Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England are all set to announce key interest rate decisions this week
The three major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, will hold policy meetings this week, and the results are expected to be at least different from each other.
The Bank of Japan will be the first to announce its decision on Wednesday, and analysts are currently divided on whether the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate from the current 0%-0.1% or signal an upcoming rate hike.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time. While few believe the Fed will start cutting rates immediately, almost everyone expects the Fed to indicate that it will cut rates at its next meeting in mid-September.
The Bank of England will announce its policy decision early Thursday afternoon, and economists and interest rate markets are roughly evenly divided on whether the central bank will ease policy for the first time in several years. More certain is that even if the Bank of England does cut rates, it may indicate that it is taking a very cautious approach, that is, suggesting to the market that a series of easing policies should not be expected.
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 86.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 12.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.4%.