Where is the bottom of this round of bull market? Has the wash ended?

Many people regard 60,000 as a bull-bear dividing line. If it breaks through 60,000, it will be 100,000, and if it falls below 60,000, it will be 30,000. I personally think that the bottom of this round of bull market will be around 50,000-52,000. This is the position of the extreme pin. It may not reach it, but it will not fall below it. The following is my personal opinion.

First of all, from the disk, since the new high on March 13, it has been fluctuating for more than 4 months. It is not difficult to see that the current big cake is in a daily level descending channel with a continuous decrease in highs and a continuous creation of lows. It has completed 2 pushes. This time, it just touched 70,000 and fell rapidly. It is not ruled out that it will go to 3 pushes. The trend line support level of 3 pushes is about 50,600, and this position happens to be an important support level!

Secondly, the confidence of retail investors in the market is still there. All I heard was that they were holding on to their positions. Few people were leaving the market at a loss. Most of the losses were in contracts, which means that these declines did not cause too much panic among retail investors. The purpose of the dog dealers was not achieved, so there may be one last surge. Those who have not yet boarded the train should hurry up. When the big drop comes, don't worry about whether it will go to 30,000 or 40,000. Just buy in. Every big drop is a good time to increase positions. We are currently in a bull market, and the big bull will definitely come.

As for the news, we only need to look at the interest rate cut in the second half of the year. All other negative news is disruptive. At present, most people's expectations remain at a rate cut in September. There is an uncertain factor in this, that is, Powell is also weighing whether Trump can win. If the interest rate meeting on the 1st determines a rate cut in September, then there will be a big rise in August. If there is no rate cut in September and it is postponed to November, then the dog dealers will definitely cooperate to create a panic. In the past 1-2 months, it is still mainly a wash, and it is very likely to go below 60,000 or even break the previous low. It is worth noting that if the interest rate is cut in September and there is a big rise in August, then there will still be a big fall after the actual rate cut. The expected profit-taking will be realized, and the period from the interest rate cut to the capital inflow will be a fall before a rise. The next 1-2 months will be the time when the real bull market will begin. It is recommended to hold short positions and wait and see for the contracts in these two days. There are three things to do in the spot market: buy!Buy! Buy!